Manchester City were overwhelming favourites for the title before the start of the season according to our supercomputer and, in truth, they still are. Pep Guardiola’s side won the title in the majority of the latest round of 10,000 season simulations.
But after two successive losses, their chances of winning the title have plummeted (relatively speaking, of course). Before the start of the season, they won the title in 90.2% of our supercomputer’s simulations; in other words, more than nine out of 10 times, City were crowned champions. Now that is down to 73.4%: less than seven and a half out of 10, or roughly three in every four times.
They are still considered massive favourites despite the fact their last two results – which came with key man Rodri absent from their midfield due to suspension – have left them two points adrift of Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the table.
But 73.4% is far lower than what it was not very long ago at all. In our mid-September predictions update, for example, City were given a 91.3% chance of winning the title, having started the season with four wins from four. What that means is that 26.6% of the time in our supercomputer’s simulations, a team other than City won the title.
So, who other than City has a chance? Our supercomputer makes Liverpool second favourites after they won 12.2% of simulations, while Arsenal are just behind on 11.8%. Arsenal had briefly been ahead of Liverpool but it is so tight between these two that Liverpool have just edged ahead again.
Binary outcomes doesn’t imply a 50-50 probability