I’ve seen some people confused as to why the Eagles need the Rams to lose in order to clinch a playoff spot in week 13. It all comes down to unfathomably unlikely tiebreakers that would make it seem like God hates Philadelphia, but mathematically I find it interesting. This is gonna get complicated with shenanigans after shenanigans so strap in.
So to start, here is how the Eagles do clinch (In some instances, I’m going to use > and < signs to signify who beats who). For the sake of simplicity, I won’t worry about ties. The Eagles can clinch week 13 with:
- PHI win, LAR loss
- PHI win, GB loss, DET loss
So if the Eagles and Rams win, there are three ways week 13 could go where the Eagles don’t clinch:
- GB win, DET win
- GB win, DET loss
- GB loss, DET win
In each of these 3, there is essentially only one or two tiebreaker storms where the Eagles don’t make it in. Here’s what would need to happen the rest of the way for the Eagles to miss with a week 13 win:
On a macro scale, with PHI going 11-6, three other non-division winners would need to go 11-6 and PHI would need to lose the 4-way tiebreaker. We’ll get to more specifics later, but in this scenario were PHI not to win the division, there are 6 other teams that can mathematically contend with them for a wild card spot: DET, GB, MIN, SEA, SF, LAR. (ATL or NO could finish 11-6, but if either of them do they automatically win the division, making it impossible for either to be an 11-6 wild card.)
Between DET/GB/MIN, one of them must win the NFC North. Also, GB and MIN cannot both finish 11-6 due to their matchup in Wk. 17.
Between SEA/SF/LAR, one of them must win the NFC West. It is possible for any 2 or all 3 to finish 11-6.
Thus the potential four teams fighting for three wild card spots in this scenario are PHI, [NFC North], [NFC West], [NFC West], so the short answer as to why the Eagles would need the Rams to lose to clinch, it’s because that guarantees that there can only be 2 other 11-6 teams to compete for the three wild card spots.
Now you might be wondering how the Rams could possibly matter if the Eagles beat them already, and the answer is that 3-way and 4-way tiebreakers get messy, and there are a few where the Eagles could get screwed. In order for PHI to lose the big tiebreaker, the 7 seed must win a 2-way tiebreaker against PHI. SEA, DET, and GB are the only three in this scenario that could possibly do that, because of conference record GB in the wild card would let PHI in because they hold the tiebreaker over LAR, and with LAR > SEA in the division (H2H), the seeding would go GB > PHI > LAR > SEA by the tiebreaker rules. Thus DET must finish 11-6 as a wild card team for the Eagles to miss. With DET in the picture, LAR > DET by conference win percentage. It gets hectic and confusing so I’m just going to give the scenarios as to how it’s possible cause the logic is a mess.
Here is how the Eagles could possibly beat SF and miss the playoffs.
With LAR win over CLE, GB win over KC, DET win over NO, PHI win over SF
- PHI loses out
- DAL finishes 11-6 or better
- LAR wins out
- GB or MIN wins out
- DET goes 1-2 against remaining division opponents
- DET < DEN
- DET > DAL
- 1 team from SEA/SF finishes 11-6, the other finishes 11-6 or better.
Example with Vikings winning out
Example with Packers winning out
With LAR win over CLE, GB loss to KC, DET win over NO, PHI win over SF
- PHI loses out
- DAL finishes 11-6 or better
- LAR wins out
- MIN wins out
- DET > CHI
- DET < DEN
- DET > DAL
- 1 team from SEA/SF finishes 11-6, the other finishes 11-6 or better.
With LAR win over CLE, GB win over KC, DET loss to NO, PHI win over SF
- PHI loses out
- DAL finishes 11-6 or better
- LAR wins out
- GB wins out
- DET splits games with MIN
- DET > DEN
- DET > DAL
- DET < CHI
- 1 team from SEA/SF finishes 11-6, the other finishes 11-6 or better.
- DET wins Strength of Victory tiebreaker over PHI.
The Eagles with all this in the 3rd scenario would still have a >90% chance to make the playoffs based on Strength of Victory.
For those wondering why a DET loss to NO would guarantee the Eagles in the playoffs if GB also loses, it’s because a loss to NO would make it so that DET cannot have a better conference win percentage than PHI without also winning the division.
The Eagles have basically clinched, and with a win next week have assuredly clinched but for a needle in a haystack chance to miss. But this is why the Eagles need either a Rams loss or a Packers loss and Lions loss.