Actual Record: 9-2
Expected Record: 8.8-2.2
We are now doing better than our model has predicted so far. Good chance that changes this week as we have a real rough slate of games to choose from.
I don’t care about the stupid math stuff nerd. What’s the pick!?
Minnesota Vikings -or- Tennessee Titans
There are actually 5 teams this week that are TD favorites or larger
- DAL (-12.5)
- MIA (-9.5)
- KC (-9)
- DET (-7.5)
- SF (-7)
After this, the biggest favorite is by 3.5 points. Yuk. If you have them available, take any of the above teams this week.
Unfortunately, I’ve picked everyone one of those teams already so we are left with scraps this week. The bears have been looking pretty awful this week until they pulled out a win against WAS and MIN lost to DEN. The game is now predicted to be much closer than we had planned. Very good chance this pick changes come Sunday, so keep an eye out for the Sunday update if I make one, otherwise we are just crossing our fingers and hoping for the best this week.
Right now MIN and TEN are both about 3.5 point favorites and have no use rest of season, so the plan would be to pick the team with the largest point spread on Sunday morning.
| Rank | Team | P(Win Week) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 62% | 20.09% | 14.61 |
| 2 | TEN | 62% | 20.09% | 14.61 |
| 3 | NE | 60% | 19.44% | 14.59 |
| 4 | IND | 58% | 18.80% | 14.57 |
Risky Pick
The risky pick is the pick you should go with that will maximize your chances of going undefeated for the rest of the season at the expense of the current week. It’s typically a team with a lower chance of winning in the current week but will have no usefulness rest of season so it will help you long term if you can pull off the win this week.
At this point in the season, there isn’t much use updating this section as we are pretty much dialed in for who we have left to use.
Full Season Outlook
The beauty of this model is that it looks at the entire season as a whole. Based on past picks, this is what the rest of the season would look like based on what we know right now.
| Week | Team | Opp | P(Win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | HOU | 100% |
| 2 | BUF | LV | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | ARI | 0% |
| 4 | SF | ARI | 100% |
| 5 | WAS | CHI | 0% |
| 6 | MIA | CAR | 100% |
| 7 | KC | LAC | 100% |
| 8 | LAC | CHI | 100% |
| 9 | CLE | ARI | 100% |
| 10 | SEA | WAS | 100% |
| 11 | DET | CHI | 100% |
| 12 | MIN | CHI | 62% |
| 13 | TB | CAR | 81% |
| 14 | PIT | NE | 79% |
| 15 | NO | NYG | 88% |
| 16 | PHI | NYG | 94% |
| 17 | JAX | CAR | 86% |
| 18 | GB | CHI | 71% |
No changes this week. This is for sure a giant hurdle to get over this week. If you have the opportunity to skip a week, now is the time to use it.
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 20.09%. That’s about 1 in 5.
E(Wins) = 14.61
Should still lose another 1-2 games this year, but that number is falling every week.
Methodology
In the past I had pulled probability data from 538 but apparently they got out of the business. I now pull in future probability data from NumberFire and SurvivorGrid, then average the two.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it’s optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (100+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you’re in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
I make no personal evaluations of any teams or matchups. I trust the odds makers in Vegas and the people betting on those games to know more than I do. So if you’re thinking, “Do you really trust player X?” or “Are you really picking team Y on the road?” The simple answer is that, other people with much more insight and knowledge than I could ever have have determined that Team A is that much better than Team B despite any special pleading from me or you. My picks are coming from a purely mathematical perspective using the odds that others have provided elsewhere. If you think a team isn’t as good as their line suggests, then take it up with Vegas.
Download
Every year I got a lot of “well what if I have to pick multiple teams in week X?” or “What if my league, you have to pick only losers?” or “What about team A, B, or C this week?”
I tried to make the file as all encompassing as possible, so if your survivor league has some weird quark or wrinkle in it download the file and give it a shot. If the file still doesn’t answer your question, let me know and I might add the feature in.
You can download the file here from Mediafire. – This link will likely only be good for week 1 this year while the probabilities don’t come from 538.
Disclaimer
Yes I went undefeated three years ago. No, do not expect those results this season. 2020 had the highest percentage of people go undefeated in at least the last decade, so it was an easier year with fewer upsets. In 2019 I lost 3 games by week 12 and last year had 3 losses by week 10. This isn’t a “guaranteed to win” system, just one that gives you the mathematically best chance of going undefeated. Variance is a thing, and we’ve all seen teams lose as double digit favorites.
The probability of going undefeated entering a season is about 0.5% or 1 in 200. This is typical to start the season. Don’t come harping at me if/when I pick a losing team.
Good luck to everyone this season!
Its the Sunday Update.