Had a post a few days ago using some data to deep dive into potential trade targets at the 4/5 for the Mavs. Continued below with more of a focus on 3/4 men. In no particular order.

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PJ Washington –

Pros – 25 years old, fits the Mavs timeline with Luka/Lively. On a great, descending contract for this year and 2 more, fully guaranteed. Gets off 5+ from behind the arc a game, at about 36% for his career. Pretty nice assist numbers for his entire career. Usually has above average block and steal figures, coupled with a low foul rate. 6’7 with 7’3 wingspan. Significant decrease in opponent attempts at the rim when he’s on the court. Coincidence, or is his presence deterring opponents?

Cons – Bad to very bad efficiency from everywhere except 3 point range. Awful individual and team rebounding numbers for every single season. Not quite athletic enough to get to the rim, settles for a lot of tough shots in the 4-10 foot range. Doesn’t draw fouls at all.

Price Tag – High. Young, fulltime starter on a great contract. I think he would cost the Mavs multiple firsts if they want to pursue him.

Overview – His most efficient season by a mile was 21-22, when he trimmed his usage rate, slashed his attempts from the midrange and upped his 3 pointers significantly. Could be the blueprint for his role with the Mavs. Hard to get over these awful rebounding numbers. I think he’s in a similar situation to Grant Williams, plays 4 and occasionally smallball 5. I see his true position (and Grant’s) as a 3.5. Could PJ take the starting 3 spot with the Mavs current configuration or will that simply be yet one more defender who can’t keep his man in front of him?

Patrick Williams –

Pros – Shooting upside. Low volume (2 attempts per game) but 40% in his career from 3. 78% from the line as well. Currently shoots way too often from the long mid range, eliminating those should be pretty easy low hanging fruit to up his efficiency. Individual steal, block and foul rates are all very strong every year. Looks the part of a strong, athletic wing. Individual rebound numbers are weak but team excels with him on the court on the defensive glass. 6’7 with a 6’11 wingspan would provide some much needed length.

Cons – Deeply negative on/off numbers on both sides of the ball consistently throughout his entire career. Borderline passive on offense. Hesitates to let it fly. Struggles massively on 2 pointers. Terrible assist and turnover rates. Doesn’t draw fouls or put the defense in compromising positions very often. May have lost his confidence.

Price Tag – Moderate? The current regime drafted him but there’s at least a chance the Bulls clean house in the near future. Brand new front office may be likely to move on from previous high picks they have no ties to, not to mention the fact that Williams has massively disappointed anyway.

Overview – 22 years old, former 4th overall pick. Final year of his rookie deal. A move for Williams intrigues me because of the Mavs salary cap situation. If (big if) he fit in well with the Mavs, they would control his bird rights and should be able to get him under contract at a reasonable rate for 3-4 years. Mavs tried a similar style deal with Doug McDermott years ago and just decided to let him walk at the end of their trial run. All depends on the price tag, but if the Bulls are willing to move off Williams for relatively little, I think this is a potential nice way for the Mavs to get bring another young guy into the fold.

Jerami Grant –

Pros – Long, athletic wing with strong defensive reputation. Blocks a ton of shots and manages to not foul too. Draws a bunch of fouls on the offensive end and knocks down FT’s at a high clip. Has turned himself into a consistent 3 point threat. Similar to Williams, takes way too many long mid rang shots although he hits them at a high percentage. Shift those to 3’s and he should see a nice boost efficiency wise. Made significant strides with his passing in the last 3-4 years and is someone I consider a solid ball mover at this point. Under contract for several more years (see below).

Cons – Generally positive impact on team defense, but pretty scatter shot, has had seasons where his presence was a big negative. No big impact on team rebounding. Big question for me is his acceptance of a role change. Was previously a 3&D rebounder etc with Denver and left in free agency for the chance to have more of the offense run through him. Does he still feel that way? High usage for 4 straight years and there might be an adjustment period for him relearning to take a backseat in Dallas. Under contract for several more years….lol.

Price Tag – This is a tough one. On one hand he was traded to Portland and signed a massive deal with them under the pretense of being a role player on a Dame led squad, on the other hand that is obviously no longer the case. My gut says Portland would be willing to move off him (and his contract) for a relatively modest price, maybe J Green, filler and a future 1st.

Overview – On paper he presents a pretty great option, at least in the short term. Nearly 30, the tail end of his current deal could be rough and really hinder the Mavs. Trading for Grant would require some intel on his goals and willingness to go back to a 3&D role as this would largely tie up the cap for the next 2-3 years. Personally, this feels like an all in move and I don’t think it would make the Mavs true title contenders.

OG Anunoby –

Pros – Elite size for a 2 way 3&D wing. Extremely strong and well built. 70-80% of his shots come either at the rim or behind the arc. Consistent 38%+ from deep. Excellent at the rim as well. Individual block and steal rates are upper level year after year. Really gets after it on the offensive glass too. Upper echelon on/off splits for both sides of the ball. Also a major driving force in the offensive transition game. Seems to be in the right place at the right time always on defense. 26 years old.

Cons – Low assist rate coupled with high turnovers. Much more of a play finisher rather than someone who can facilitate much offense on his own. Mediocre individual defensive rebound numbers. 18.6 million this year and then a player option that is likely to be turned down. Will be looking for major raise on his next deal.

Price Tag – Very high. Young, plug and play type wing who can fit into any system. Number of teams who can use him is essentially everyone. Major bidding war would ensue for OG.

Overview – Looks to be the perfect fit for Dallas as a top end role player. Think he would slot into the 3 spot seamlessly and shore up the defense while knocking down open shots on offense. Young enough that he would be major part of the team for his entire next contract. Same idea as Siakam, Mavs would have to take a bit of risk as he is only guaranteed for the rest of this season. No promise that he sticks around after that, but Dallas would have his full bird rights. Rumor is that Memphis offered 4 first round picks for him last year…. does Dallas even have enough ammo for him?

Dorian Finney-Smith -

Pros – Obviously well known to the Mavs so I’ll keep this writeup a little shorter. Battle tested gritty defender. Versatile and capable of switching. Long, strong, still athletic as he nears 31 years old. Quintessential low usage 3&D player. Comfortable spotting up around Luka pick and roles. Especially excels from the corners, which is huge for the Mavs offense. A+ offensive rebounder during his Mavs tenure.

Cons – Is nearing the age where athletic wings can lose a step and take them from a major positive to completely mediocre on defense. Not a real passing threat, pretty much just a play finisher. Small sample size but his rim finishing numbers have fallen off a cliff since moving to the Nets. Fluke, or start of athletic deterioration?

Price Tag – Nets are off to a slow start and they’re a bit tough to nail down. DFS has played well, but I don’t think Brooklyn is wed to him beyond this contract and may be intrigued at the prospect of taking on some more future Mavs draft capital. Feels similar to the Grant package, Green/Hardy + a 1st.

Overview – Only guaranteed for this year and next (15.4 player option in 25-26 that I would guess he’ll turn down) so this is actually a likely a 1.5 year rental. That should keep the price tag fairly modest. Reacquiring DFS probably isn’t the highest ceiling play, but the fit couldn’t be better and that makes this feel like a super safe way to improve the team’s main areas of weakness.

Pascal Siakam -

Pros – High usage wing. Huge, HUGE positive on/off numbers both offensively and defensively for his entire career. Ditto for defensive rebounding. Off the charts positive impact on transition offense. Assist rate has steadily improved over his career, all the while his turnover rate has been inching downward. Really tough combo to pull off. Manages not to foul at a high clip as well. 6’9 with a 7’3 wingspan and has experience at the 3,4 and 5 in his career. Would be a huge boost to the Mavs just strictly for his size. Puts the defense in compromised situations all the time, draws fouls consistently. 2018/2019 season (Raptors championship year) was by far his most efficient offensive season. Is that because he’s more suited to playing second fiddle behind a superstar (Luka/Kawhi), or is that shooting luck/fluke?

Cons – Inefficient scorer from the field. Career 32% from deep is way below average in today’s NBA. Shot profile is a throwback. Top of the charts for number of attempts from the long mid-range. I’m nit picking here but he’s nearly 30, and not much of a jump shooter so his drop off could be steeper/faster than most. Free agent at the end of this season and is surely looking to get paid big money.

Price Tag – Very high. Would be a major bidding war for him. Multiple firsts + young players. Mavs may not even have enough to get him if they wanted to.

Overview – Majority of his shots are unassisted, so there may be some untapped potential if he could transform a lot of those to catch and shoot in Dallas playing off Kyrie and Luka. Is he interested in shifting his role from offensive hub to role player? There was chatter about him being traded last year and even word that he was telling teams behind the scenes that he wouldn’t sign an extension with anyone except Toronto. Then there was also rumors of a dispute between Siakam and Raptors management….hard to know what is going on with that situation. Mavs would have to get their intel straight and have a great idea as to what Siakam is looking for in free agency. Same situation as Kyrie last year……they would hold his full bird rights but obviously that’s no guarantee. Probably the highest ceiling option on my list, but clearly there is quite a bit of risk as there is a possibility he’s just a rental.

Deni Avdija -

Pros – Same situation (and draft class) as Patrick Williams. Restricted free agent this upcoming offseason and acquiring him would allow the Mavs to have a nice little trial period before committing long term. Really strong on/off splits for a Wizards team that has been a trainwreck for most of his time there. Positive transition impact numbers over his career, an area that I’m sure the Mavs will look to continue to emphasize. Gets to the rim a shocking amount of time (to me anyway). Above average finisher once he gets there. Makes some really nice passes. Good steal figures and outstanding defensive rebounding numbers, both individually and on a team level.

Cons – Had the rep as a potential good shooter coming into the draft, but has been really poor from 3 thus far (to be fair so far this year he’s been excellent in a small sample). Short arms (6’8 with an identical wingspan). Fairly turnover prone. Number of 3 pointers is trending in the wrong direction for a role player. Could be a result of the Wizards being a mess and Deni taking on more of a creator role than he would be in Dallas. Inefficient offensive player for all of his career until this season. Fouls way too often.

Price Tag – High? With Wizards in total rebuild it’s tough to see why they would punt on a 22 year old former lottery pick unless they were either blown away with the offer, or totally out on Deni. They’re playing him 27 minutes a game, so by all accounts they haven’t given up on him.

Overview – Same general idea as Patrick Williams. Would really be an interesting way for the Mavs to bring in a young player who could fit with their core for the long term. After doing a deep dive on Deni, I came away far more impressed than I expected to be. I think if you could shift the shot profile he would fit really nicely with this current Mavs core. I love the + rebounding numbers. Question for me is the upside. Does trading a big package for him boost the Mavs into contention?

Torrey Craig –

Pros – Extremely low usage 3&D player. Knows his role, attempts vast majority of his shots from 3 or at the rim. Really strong block rates, no listed wingspan but certainly plays like it’s a big +. Excellent individual offensive and defensive rebound rates. One of the best in the league at getting offensive boards after free throws. 2.5 million this year with a 2.8 player option for next.

Cons – Horrific on/off impact stats for his entire career. Truly bottom of the scale. Inefficient shooter from everywhere except at the rim. Fouls at an extremely high rate. Team rebounding number with him on the court are pretty consistently awful. 33 years old.

Price Tag – Low (free). Bulls will likely shift to total rebuild soon. Very likely (imo) that Craig is moved for whatever they can get, or just bought out.

Overview – Would basically be this years version of Justin Holiday. Flier on a defensive wing with low probability of making an impact. No upside at all.

Ish Wainright –

***Sprained MCL. Currently out 4-6 weeks.

Pros – Stocky, muscular forward. Extremely physical. Knows his role on offense, hangs out in the corners and pretty much only shots from behind the arc. Strong individual steal and block rates. Limited playing time in the NBA so small sample size, but positive impact on both sides of the ball on/off wise. Huge positive differential for team rebounding both offensively and defensively.

Cons – Basically has never been efficient from anywhere on the floor during his time in the NBA. Stands behind the 3 point line, but doesn’t actually have any gravity out there. Play finisher only, not really a passer at all. Pretty slow footed, can he really stay in front of most wing players or is he more of a 4 man defensively?

Price Tag – Low. Blazers essentially tanking this year. Would think they would be willing to move Wainright for whatever they can get. Would actually be a restricted FA at the end of this season, spent time in Europe after college so that could change the calculus on his value a little bit.

Overview – I’ll call him kind of the rich man’s version of Craig. 0 offensively, but I’m a touch intrigued by the rebounding numbers, obviously an area of huge weakness for the Mavs. With Jones Jr. at the 3 spot Dallas have gone with a limited offensive player, who can play some POA defense and gives them general athleticism. Wainright would be a kind of inverse version of that, at least defensively. Still mostly a non factor on offense, but brings some added bulk and toughness to a defense that could use it. Can playing with Luka and Kyrie juice Wainrights offense (as has been the case so far with Jones Jr.)? If they get a hidden gem they would be able to presumably keep him under contract at a bargain rate for a few years.

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Takeaways:

Quite a few interesting options IMO. Some really high impact (and high cost) guys, as well as some bargain bin types. The cop out answer for who they should target is “it depends on the price and the players willingness to re-sign” ete.

The cap gurus will have to chip in for a more in depth analysis on future tax/second apron implications here but if the Mavs can pry OG or Pascal from Toronto, I think that move alone could bump the defense up a notch without hurting the offense at all (likely will even help the offense slightly). Of course a trade of that magnitude will cost most of all of the Mavs remaining assets, so this would qualify as an all in move. Would adding either of those guys put Dallas in a position to outlast Denver/Boston etc in the playoffs?

The safer and longer term plays are PJ, Pat Williams and Deni. All could help now and also be a part of the long term future at a much more reasonable cap number. Would allow the Mavs to retain some tax/apron flexibility. DFS fits into this category as well although he’s of course older and we pretty much know what to expect from him on the court in the Dallas ecosystem.

Grant is kind of between the two groups…higher risk with his massive long term cap hit, but I’m not sure the upside is there to push Dallas into true contention.

Craig and Wainright are more of the discount pickup guys. Obviously not going to make a huge difference come playoff time but could chip in during the regular season.

Would love to know what folks think from this group above, or if there are some other names who I didn’t highlight.