Last day for charity drive!
We already have about 150 of you donating $5 for the charity drive! Thanks so much, for participating.
Today is the last day to donate, for the 1-week access to the ROS views: Sign up here for “Playoffs view for Charity.” More details were in the Thanksgiving day post.
Defensive Maneuvers
Reminders: these are for ESPN settings. Always check the website for (1) Yahoo setttings, (2) “Why high/Why low”, and (3) Histograms of most-similar historical games.
We have already 25 participants in this week’s Pick6x6 challenge, so the average guess for those 6 teams is listed in bold. The other scores are my own. And the Expert consensus rankings are there for comparison or possible preference.
| # | Subvertadown + Reddit Consensus | Mean Rank of this team by 5-Expert Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons @ Jets | #3.5 |
| 2 | Jaguars vs. Bengals | #5 |
| 3 | Buccaneers vs. Panthers | #4 |
| 4 | Rams vs. Browns | #9 |
| 5 | Chiefs @ Packers | #6.5 |
| 6 | Chargers @ Patriots | #9.5 |
| 7 | Steelers vs. Cardinals | #7 |
| 8 | Dolphins @ Commanders | #2.5 |
| 9 | Jets vs. Falcons | #7 |
| 10 | Colts @ Titans | #14 |
Experts are higher on Dolphins, lower on Rams and Colts. Reddit is lower on Chargers and higher on Colts.
Here’s the Kicker
A reminder that the full list of “Why High / Why Low” drivers is here for Kickers.
| # | Handpicked 5-Expert Consensus (Wednesday) | Subvertadown Model (Wednesday) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aubrey | Aubrey |
| 2 | Butker | Hopkins |
| 3 | Sanders | Sanders |
| 4 | McManus | McManus |
| 5 | Boswell | Ammendola |
| 6 | Dicker | Patterson |
| 7 | Gay | Lutz |
| 8 | Patterson | Havrisik |
Overlaps are Aubrey, Sanders, McManus, Patterson (ugh). I don’t have Gay far behind, and the other experts follow up with McLaughlin and Lutz.
Good luck!
/Subvertadown
4th downs has been a recurring topic this season, and it is maybe the main additions for me to study in the off-season.
I do not include it now, but it doesn’t seem to be the issue with Sanders. Patterson, yes, there was a bubble of 4th downs the Lions took during the month of October especially. I have given Patterson an artificial downgrade this week, considering this, but it’s not something I’ve done before and is not scientific. But he’s still ranked pretty high because the matchup considerations are apparently juicy.
The way you phrase the question is the correct way and makes it more difficult: We need to distinguish between 4th down attempts made within FG range and those attempts outside FG range. This came up multiple times around mid-October, when people tried to explain the record high number of FGs being made across the league. Same topic, different angle.