Inb4 statistics are meaningless because 2017 scarred you on an emotional level so you’re just gonna plug your ears and ignore this post. Fair play to ya but I still find it interesting and trade deadline is passed so I have to procrastinate in new ways. TL;DR at the bottom

So, it’s that time of the year again where we’re in the home stretch of the season(6 games or fewer left) and I start needlessly fiddling with playoff simulations. Unrelated note to the post but I’m currently working on a side project to replicate the NYT simulators capability on a free website, will post it here when it’s done if anyone cares. According to ELO and betting markets simulating out the remaining of the season we currently sit at:

• ~98% chance to make the playoffs(~96% according to ESPN Football Power Index)

• ~58% chance to win the division(~65% ESPN FPI)

• ~20% chance to get the #1 seed

Note all of these numbers can change by ~2% when you re-sim the remaining games. With the top level numbers out of the way let’s look at the most important remaining games for each scenario(i.e. which games have the highest odds discrepancy between a simulated win and loss):

Most important Ravens’ games to make the playoffs:

• Week 18 vs Pittsburgh(~8%)

• Week 14 vs Rams(~8%)

• Week 12 at Chargers(~7%)

Most impactful NON Ravens’ games for us to make the playoffs:

• Week 18 Bills vs Dolphins(~2%)

• Week 12 Bills vs Eagles(~2%)

Least important Ravens’ game to make the playoffs:

• Week 16 at 49ers(~3%)

Most important Ravens’ games to win the division:

• Week 18 vs Pittsburgh(~49%)

• Week 15 at Jaguars(~23%)

• Week 14 vs Rams(~22%)

Most impactful NON Ravens’ games to win the division:

• Week 18 Browns vs Bengals(~25%)

• Week 16 Browns at Texans(~19%)

• Week 14 Jags at Browns(~17%)

The big discrepancies here is that beating the Chargers is a big deal for overall playoff odds but not very impactful at all for the division because the Chargers aren’t a common opponent on the Browns schedule. On the contrary the Jags, Rams and 49ers games are all immensely important in the divisional race as all 3 are common opponents on the Browns schedule. Obviously Pittsburgh is important in all scenarios(wild card, division, tiebreakers, etc). Even though it’s a long shot for fun here’s the scenarios the 1 seed.

Most important Ravens’ games to get a bye:

• Week 17 vs Dolphins(~24%)

• Week 15 at Jaguars(~17%)

• Week 18 vs Steelers(~17%)

Most impactful NON Ravens’ games to get a bye:

• Week 14 Bills at Chiefs(~10%)

• Week 17 Bengals at Chiefs(~10%)

• Week 18 Chiefs at Chargers(~10%)

Basically any remaining AFC Chiefs loss is of equal importance. A loss to the Eagles tonight is more realistic but has less meaning(~7%).

TL;DR: Assuming winning the division/getting the 1 seed is the goal and not just stumbling into the playoffs these are the remaining games in order of importance:

1. Week 18 vs Steelers

2. Week 15 at Jaguars

3. Week 17 vs Dolphins

4. Week 14 vs Rams

5. Week 16 at 49ers

6. Week 12 at Chargers