Time to revisit some predictions on what we would be talking about by the end of October.
I’ve pasted my predictions from August below, written in the way I expected the narrative on this sub to be by October. I’ve added commentary in italics now.
- Marvin Mims looks like a real player. Injuries gave him his chance to be elevated up the depth chart, but he’s justified his place and may well go in to 2024 as our WR1. I think he does look like a talent but he hasn’t done enough yet (or had enough opportunity) to make the statement as strongly as I hoped. He’s made a couple of fumbles recently. However I expect us to trade one or two of our starting WRs which might mean Mims is WR1 by 2024.
- We went into the year light at RB. Javonte was never going to be able to just roll straight off such a complex injury and pick up where he was a year ago, despite all the hype about his miracle recovery. Perine is a useful player but he’s an older RB and not explosive enough to be a game changer. McLaughlin has been a bright spark but can’t shoulder a big load. I’m more optimistic now - Javonte showed signs against Green Bay that he is getting back to his former level and McLaughlin looks like he has juice.
- We need to figure the O-line out fast. For all the big money spent on the O-line we still have one of the weaker pass blocking units in the NFL and it is the cause of a lot of our problems. This prediction came true.
- The defense has taken a step back. Defense is rarely sticky from one year to the next and we are missing Chubb and Evero. Bringing back Vance was not the move to make. Understatement of the year.
- Payton has to make a decision about Russ soon. He’s been better than the shitshow of last year and we haven’t had the stories about him alienating the locker room. But the same problems remain, he struggles to see the field, pass the ball over the middle of the field and he doesn’t have the same accuracy on his trademark deep ball out wide which used to make him such a dangerous QB. His contract is going to become more of a millstone so we need to decide if we want to bite the bullet and take the cap hit. And if so, whether to see what we got in Stidham. Russ has definitely been better than last year but the rest of these points are still valid and he hasn’t shown he is back to “old Russ”.
- What a shitshow the Raiders are this year. But there’s a lurking fear that when they inevitably jettison McDaniels they might find a good coach and they will be in contention to draft one of the elite rookie QBs which could make the AFC West even more of a nightmare going forwards. They are a shitshow but I’m less worried about their draft pick because we will be drafting ahead of them.
- The Chargers offense has looked much better since ditching Lombardi and bringing in Kellen Moore. No further comment. Got this one wrong - the Chargers are still not firing and are still underachieving. There haven’t been many complaints about Lombardi in this sub either.
- We need a rebuild to get the kind of roster Payton can compete with the top teams. It’s time to face facts, our roster is one of the weaker rosters in the league and has been for a while. It’s a consequence of several bad years of drafting (and free agency) at the end of Elway’s time and Paton despite improving the drafting, bombing away picks on a Russ experiment which hasn’t worked. Time to rip the Band Aid off and move on some players who we aren’t going to want to or be able to pay. I think this is well accepted and we’ve already started by moving on Gregory and Frank Clark.
- Roster aside, there does seem to be a better set up at the Broncos now. The owners seem to be taking things seriously, Payton is fully invested and is bringing a better culture and some good innovations to the offense, he’s just being let down by too many players he inherited being below Payton standard. I’d like to say this is valid but I think the jury is still out on whether we really have a better set up.
I remember before the season saying I expected between 7 and 9 wins as well, but that was also based on expecting we beat the Raiders, Commanders and Jets. So now I’m thinking 4 to 6.
Although Detroit were 1-6 after 7 games last season and finished 9-8.