He’s been shooting the ball very well and his efficiency on offense has been off the charts. In addition to this, the shots he takes are all good shots. He hardly takes heavily contested shots or shots off the dribble. He might have a real chance at joining this illustrious club. What do you think?
If Chet does make it into the club, that would be insane. A rookie joining the likes of Larry Bird, Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Reggie Miller, and Mark Price would be a historical achievement. All members of the club are elite shooters and if Chet joins it, he’ll definitely be considered an elite shooter as well.
Assuming Chet continues to get the same number of shots as he’s averaging all season (I expect/hope this increases), and making the rough assumption he plays every game; in order to remain in the 50/40/90 group he’d need to shoot:
He’s pretty much locked in to hit FG% unless he changed his shot diet drastically. The other two are a lot closer. I think 3P% is pretty reasonable to expect. He shot 39.0% in college, and he didn’t have a guy like Shai creating space — he is getting a LOT of those wide-open center threes that he feasts on.
FT% is a lot shakier; he basically has to sustain almost exactly his current FT% which is far outperforming his college stats. Still, his shot looks smooth and he’s had a year with Chip, so maybe this is real.
I’m going to say, it’s like probably 60/40 YES. I believe. Let’s go.
(Obviously a lot of assumptions here; if he added more 3P shots it would potentially make FG/3P slightly harder but FT ever so slightly easier — he might average a fraction of an attempt less per game, meaning the shots he’s taken so far have a bigger impact toward the total — or vice versa; teams might start going at him harder resulting in more FTs making that harder etc.)