Link to Part 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/suns/comments/180ou74/in_season_tournament_update/

Friday Scenarios at the bottom break down all that can happen, the rest just details that a bit more.

Lakers beat Utah which gives them a 4-0 sweep in group play and a bid into the knockout round of 8.

For a quick breakdown, the winner of each group automatically goes to the single elimination knockout stage. This will provide 3 teams from the west and 3 teams from the east. From there the next best team in each conference will get the wildcard slot making up the 8 team single elimination bracket (This is where we come in).

With the Lakers winning our group we are now forced to aim for the single wild card slot in the west, but we don’t have alot of competition for it, 3 teams in fact (Technically 2). We will have to assume the Suns win Friday but we will get back to more of that. This means any team currently with 2 losses, or ends up with 2 losses is already out. The following are the teams we will be battling with for the wild card slot:

Phoenix: (2-1, +13 PD) - Remaining Games (@Memphis)

Denver: (2-1, +9 PD) - Remaining Games (@Houston)

Minnesota: (2-0, +16 PD) - Remaining Games (Vs Sac / Vs. OKC)

Sacramento: (2-0, +10 PD) - Remaining Games (@ Minn / vs. GSW)

Group B Teams: As much as i hate it we gotta be big LAC fans for thier game vs New Orleans. New Orleans is not a threat for the wild card either way; They will either win the group with a win over the Clippers, or fall to 2-2 with a loss eliminating them from wildcard contention. Denver will need to beat Houston in order to challenge for the wildcard, but a Denver win and a Pelicans Loss gives Denver the Group Win and then no wild card challengers out of group B. New Orleans has a tough final game vs The Clippers and Denver has an easier but not freebie vs Houston. I lean toward Denver winning and New Orleans out but i also do not trust this clippers team yet.

Group C Teams: This all comes down to Fridays game of Sacramento @ Minnesota. Winner of that automatically wins the group, the other will have to win its final game to contend for the wildcard. Sacramento’s final game is @ GSW and Minnesota’s final game is @ OKC. Neither will be easy games for which ever team needs the must win to stay alive.

The good News: The Suns 13 point win over Portland last night set us up really well to snag the wildcard. We still need to take care of a wounded and struggling Memphis team without Ja, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams, & Brandon Clarke. Looking at and projecting forward the current Point Differentials of the 3 other wild card contenders Denver +9 (Expected to increase with a Win over Houston, but may be the group winner and not a threat at all). Minnesota (+16) and Sacramento (+10) are really 1 team since 1 of them will win their group and will not be a threat to the wildcard. With how close Minnesota and Sacramento are it really doesn’t matter too much which wins on Friday, a big win one way or the other would be huge for us point differential wise. Both teams will have a tough final game, certainly tougher than Suns @ Memphis meaning the Suns should actually be in the driver seat for the wildcard assuming they take care of buisness vs MEM and nothing absurd happens in the other games, but it is the NBA.

Friday Scenarios: Starts with a Suns Big Win over Memphis, every point matters

Big Sacramento Win (10+Points) = Sacramento Wins Group No longer a threat to wildcard. Minnesota move to 2-1,+6 or worse with 1 game to play @ OKC.

Big Minnesota Win (10+Points) = Minnesota wins group no longer a threat to wildcard. Sacramento move to 2-1,+0 or worse with 1 game to play @ GSW.

Close Sacramento Win (~3pts) = Sacramento Wins Group No longer a threat to wildcard. Minnesota move to 2-1,+13 or worse with 1 game to play @ OKC.

Close Minnesota Win (~3pts) = Minnesota wins group no longer a threat to wildcard. Sacramento move to 2-1,+7 or worse with 1 game to play @ GSW.

New Orleans wins / Denver Wins = NO Wins the group, no longer a threat. Denver is a wildcard contender with a record of (3-1, Greater than +9 PD depending on how much they win by)

New Orleans Loses / Denver Wins = Denver wins the group, New Orleans is eliminated and no wild card threats remain.

New Orleans Loses / Denver Loses = New Orleans wins the group, Denver eliminated from wildcard contention and no wild card threats remain.

On Friday we will know the exact number of what is needed for Minn or SAC to take the Wildcard. The more the Suns win by the harder it will be for the other teams to catch up. We are 1 good win away from locking this up.