Intro

Just following up on some recent posts about the NBA In-Season Tournament and the general attitude that this sub seems to have (i.e. the tournament has been a massive success and anyone that doesn’t think so is an idiot who hates fun).

Numbers to Keep In Mind (TV Ratings)

Opening Day: ~2.5m

Christmas: ~4m

Finals: ~12m

Tournament (So Far): ~1.7m

Breaking Down the Tournament Numbers

• Only 37/60 games have been played so far entering Tuesday.
• Ratings are “up” 55% when compared to games in a similar window last year.
• NOTE: The comparison does not seem to be rigorous, only surface level. For example, it was reported that the NBA saw a 73% increase in the tournament game between PHO vs. LAL than last year’s game which was between MIL vs. MIN. It seems a bit simplistic to compare a game between Lebron vs. KD to a game last year with MIL vs. MIN (i.e. if Lebron and KD faced off last year in a similar window then the increase in TV ratings this year would probably not be as high as 73%). However, it is possible for a reverse effect to take place (i.e. a better game was played in last year’s window compared to this year’s window) so let’s just accept the increase at face value.
• Even taking the increase in TV ratings at face value, the tournament is not as popular as opening day, let alone Christmas games.
• NOTE: The most important tournament games have not been played yet. It’s likely we get some increased viewership during the final group stage game and also during the knockout rounds.

False Assumptions

Here are some common assumptions I see that I don’t think have sound reasoning:

1. The tournament is just like tournaments in soccer (i.e. domestic cups, Champions League).
2. The tournament will get more popular as time goes on.

Reasoning

1. I’m not a huge soccer fan, so if anyone else would like to chime in feel free. From my understanding, the reason why domestic cups are exciting is because you are playing against teams you wouldn’t normally play in your “regular season”. For example, in England if you are in the Premier League you are only playing against a subset of English teams (supposedly the best teams in England). However, the FA cup actually has you play against all the English teams, so the winner of it can claim to be the best club in the country. This is similar for other domestic cups in Spain, Germany, France, etc. Similarly, the Champions League allows the best clubs to compete internationally to see who’s the best in Europe. This is not comparable to the NBA because it’s the same 30 teams playing each other. If you want to see who’s the best team in the NBA you have to wait until June not December.
2. This leads to the second point. Why would the tournament magically get better as it goes on? You could see why the soccer tournaments get better as they go on because there’s actually something you’re playing for. But the NBA tournament does not have anything meaningful. If you want to see who’s the best team in the NBA that’s decided in the Finals. If you want to see who’s the best team in North America/the World then the NBA is not playing teams outside the league (ex. college teams, G-League teams, international teams). Thus it’s not clear why the tournament would get more popular as time goes on. It’s possible it just follows a box-office pattern (i.e. strong in the beginning but fades as time goes on).

Subjective Experience

• My enjoyment of the tournament has followed a box-office pattern. From a Raptors fan perspective, the first game was a close, competitive, exciting home-game that we narrowly lost. My interest was high and I was excited to see how the rest of the tournament played out. Our second game we got blown out, on the road and are now probably knocked out. I don’t have as much excitement in watching the final two tournament games.
• As a neutral fan watching some other teams it was also exciting at the start but once the novelty wore off my interest started to fade. For example, the first slate of tournament games on November 3rd were all close and exciting to watch. However, as the tournament went on we’ve seen more blow outs and the novelty has kinda worn out. I just finished watching Lakers vs. Jazz and it wasn’t that great of a game. Obviously close games are exciting but blow-outs aren’t more exciting just because it’s a tournament game.
• The courts are legitimately bad. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is affecting ratings. It’s hard to track players sometimes and I don’t need bright colors to keep my attention like I’m a child.
• Once my team is out, I don’t really care who wins in Vegas. Compared to the Finals, I still follow the NBA when my team gets eliminated because I want to see who wins the LOB.
• The point differential doesn’t necessarily make the end of games more exciting (just look at TOR-ORL and LAL-UTA for examples from yesterday).
• The tournament being played on Tuesdays/Fridays kind of ruins the flow of it. Especially when they didn’t play on election night Tuesday.