Happy Thanksgiving to all although I am at work doing the daily grind.

Shout out again to u/Kingding_Aling for the original concept for these stats see here (yes I do intend to keep referencing you as the original author of the concept). Had a busy week but I do intend of keeping this weekly post going on Thursdays instead of Tuesday like I did before.

Like I mentioned last week, I wanted to try to attribute the uncatchable rates back to the QB. In the end, I resigned to highlighting the QB for the WR and indicating an accuracy % (I think it needs a better name, so I am still open to suggestions). An individual sheet for the previous weeks as far back as week 10 is also accessible to isolate from the current season stats given the amount of new QBs playing this season.

So keep these in mind with these sheets:

  • Source data is based on Fantasy Pros determination of a catchable pass.
  • The accuracy % is based on the formula of (the team’s total catchable targets) / (the teams total targets).
  • The Season sheet looks at a minimum of 55 targets. I make the assumption that any WR that we care about can demand at least 5 targets a game after 11 weeks of the season.
  • The Week 11 sheet looks at a minimum of 3 targets.
  • The filters on the sheet should be editable so you can choose your own requirement if you think mine are wrong. I had issues viewing from my mobile device so you may want to view from a desktop.

I’m only going to highlight the season stats in the table but I’ll mention both stats in the takeaways:

Season So Far Worst Catchable Rates

Name Team Targets Uncatch Uncatch% QB Accuracy%
Marquise Brown ARI 86 37 43.0 Kyler Murray* 62.7*
George Pickens PIT 68 29 42.6 Kenny Pickett 40.6
Deandre Hopkins TEN 78 32 41.0 Will Levis 36.3
D.K. Metcalf SEA 71 29 40.8 Geno Smith 42.6
Garrett Wilson NYJ 103 42 40.8 Zach Wilson 26.7

*Some of these numbers obviously belongs to another starting QB for the season.

Season So Far Best Catchable Rates

Name Team Targets Uncatch Uncatch% QB Accuracy%
Adam Thielen CAR 97 17 17.5 Bryce Young 43.5
Tyreek Hill MIA 108 21 19.4 Tua Tagovailoa 62.5
CeeDee Lamb DAL 95 20 21.1 Dak Prescott 55.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 98 21 21.4 Jared Goff 60.1
Keenan Allen LAC 113 25 22.1 Justin Herbert 58.0

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Now for some takeways:

  • George Pickens is no longer the leader of uncatchable passes. Marquise Brown has now over taken him with a higher uncatchable rate from Kyler. Interestingly though, the combined accuracy rate from Kyler increased from 61.4 to 62.7 and gives me the impression that the difficulty with Brown maybe linked to his usage more than anything.
  • For Pickens owners, his week 11 uncatchable rate was actually 33.3. Diontae owners seem to be suffering more lately as this marks the second week with a 75.0 uncatchable rate from Pickett.
  • Life remains rough for Christian Watson owners. Second week with an uncatchable rate of at least 50%, which is highest among the GB receivers. I believe this is another case of usage within their offense.
  • DK Metcalf is benefiting from the target volume obviously. Although he moves from 5th to 4th in worst targets and his week 11 uncatchable rate also increased from 41.7 to 44.4%, he wasn’t the receiver who suffered most in week 11. No, that title went to JSN who had an uncatchable rate of 50%, which is a big jump since all of his targets were catchable last week.
  • Not sure if I see the top 5 for the Best Catchable Rate Kings changing anytime soon. Zay Flowers has 23.6 (6th), DJ Moore has 23.8 (7th) and Tyler Boyd has 23.9 (8th). I see Boyd actually moving since he is now paired with Browning, making way for both Courtland Sutton’s 24.2 (9th) and Stefon Diggs’ 24.5 (10th) to move up but probably not in the top 5.
  • Finally, I want to just highlight how bad Zach Wilson has been. Don’t get me wrong, we all have seen it with our eyes but its another thing when you look at the data. For the season, Wilson has no receiver with an uncatchable rate less than 30%. However, another thing that the sheet brings up is Zach’s inaccuracy. Zach Wilson has been accurate for about 26.7 of the time based on receivers captured in the Fantasypro’s data. Zach Wilson has been beyond bad and I already dread the thought of now having to track a potential QB that could be worse than Wilson. That shit’s not cool Jets.

Anyways, gonna end here. Got some meetings that I’m gonna have to jet to. Hope you guys have an awesome holiday for those who celebrate it and good luck this week to everyone.

Worksheet for your viewing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aVgZPvcD1Pnn92xNLVEiiPg98e7M-l3qwwvDJvME_-k/edit?usp=sharing