Super long shot scenarios in which the Eagles win on Sunday and MISS the playoffs.

So although the Eagles haven’t clinched a playoff berth yet, with a win next week they are very, very close. There are two scenarios next week where a playoff berth is clinched:

Eagles beat 49ers, Browns beat Rams
Eagles beat 49ers, Lions beat Saints, Chiefs beat Packers.

I was curious to find out how on Earth the Eagles could win next week and miss the playoffs. So let’s start with how this could happen. Let’s assume the Eagles beat the 49ers and lose out the rest of the season. Here are some findings.

There is no scenario where the Eagles miss the playoffs and an NFC South team gets a wildcard (even with a loss on Sunday)
The Eagles cannot mathematically finish behind CAR, ARI, NYG, WAS, and CHI. This leaves 11 teams vying for 7 spots.
For the Eagles to miss at 11-6 with a win against SF, four non-division winners would have to finish 11-6 and the Eagles would have to be the odd team out. In all of these scenarios, LAR finishes 11-6. Thus an Eagles win against SF and any LAR loss will clinch the playoffs.

Scenario with LAR win over CLE, NO win over DET, GB win over KC, PHI win over SF:

LAR wins out
GB wins out
DET goes 1-1 against MIN (Wks. 16 & 18)
DET beats DAL (Wk. 17)
DET beats DEN (Wk. 15)
DET loses to CHI (Wk. 14)
SF beats SEA (Wk. 14)
SEA wins Wks. 15-18
SF loses to ARI (Wk. 15)

This leaves division winners DAL, GB, LAR, ATL/NO, with SF as the 5 seed, SEA as the 6 seed, and PHI & DET vying for the 7 seed*, and it comes down to Strength of Victory. Currently the Eagles opponents are .485, DET’s opponents are .421, so several games would need to go Detroit’s way for DET to win that tiebreaker.

* Tiebreakers: GB over DET by Division win %, LAR and SF over SEA by head to head, LAR over SF by Division win %, SF over SEA by head to head, SF over PHI & DET by conference win %, DET/PHI determined by SoV.

Scenario with LAR win over CLE, DET win over NO, GB win over KC, PHI win over SF:

LAR wins out
GB wins out
DET goes 1-2 against remaining division opponents
SF loses to SEA (Wk. 14) or ARI (Wk. 15)
SEA goes 3-1 or better Wks. 15-18

There are two scenarios from here:

DET loses to DEN (Wk. 15) and beats DAL (Wk. 17) (DET wins tiebreaker against PHI by conference record).
DET beats DEN (Wk. 15), loses to DAL (Wk. 17), loses to CHI (Wk. 14), splits Vikings series, and wins SoV Tiebreaker against PHI.

Other tiebreakers are the same as above, except SEA can go 12-5 in this scenario.

Scenario with LAR win over CLE, DET win over NO, KC win over GB, PHI win over SF.

LAR wins out
MIN wins out
SF beats SEA (Wk. 14)
SEA wins Wks. 15-18
SF loses to ARI (Wk. 15)
DET loses to DEN (Wk. 15)
DET beats DAL (Wk. 17)

DET wins the tiebreaker against the Eagles on conference record.

I know that these are all so highly unlike but I just thought it was interesting to see how we could possibly screw it up. So playoffs are basically a lock. I did most of this by playing around with the playoff machine, let me know if I missed anything.