Welcome to the thirteenth iteration of 2023’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #12 Review

Moving on as quickly as possible from the heart-breaking loss in Philly, Week #12 was a weird week for Rooting Interests. The Bengals, Texans, Browns, Raiders, and Chargers all lost which while good came at the expense of Steelers, Jaguars, Broncos, Chiefs, and Ravens victories. Add to that the Colts finding a way to win a 1-score game against the Buccaneers and what could have been an OK week for the Bills was one that was much closer to meh. Now in the Bills Bye Week though Rooting Interests are as important as they have ever been with Buffalo needing at least some help moving forward if they want to sneak into the playoffs.

Rooting Interests Record: 61-85 (LW 6-9)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -49 (LW -10 👏*)*

Seahawks @ Cowboys (Thursday 8:15PM) 👏

Though it is becoming more and more unlikely by the week, SOV/SOS remains a feasible tiebreaker for the Buffalo Bills. For that reason, in games such as this we root for the teams the Bills have played or will play. The Bills don’t play the Seahawks in the regular season this year but will host the Cowboys on December 17th. Root accordingly.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys Victory

Colts @ Titans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

Detailing the Colts path to 6-5 would require an entire post so for the sake of Rooting Interests all you need to know is they have one less loss than the Bills. Detailing the Titans path to 4-7 is much simpler, they just aren’t a very good football team. This week Bills fans should be rooting for that not very good team to take down a surprisingly good team, a result which would provide Buffalo with some very realistic backdoors into the playoffs.

Optimal Outcome: Titans Victory

Chargers @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏

In the grand scheme of things this game won’t matter all that much for the Bills with both the Chargers and Patriots at or past the 7-loss mark. That means we need to step a bit outside our typical rooting interests and dig a bit deeper. While a loss by the Chargers basically eliminates them from the playoffs it’s the win by the Patriots which makes this the optimal outcome. New England winning every game, except for 1, moving forward is good for the Bills by reducing their draft stock and keeping some of the top quarterback prospects out of Foxborough.

Optimal Outcome: Patriots Victory

Lions @ Saints (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

Luckily for us there is but one game this week that is a good old fashion NFC only non-Bills opponent matchup. In those games we look to the SOV impact on other AFC teams to determine the optimal outcome. In that context the Lions have lost to the Ravens and beat the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers while the Saints have lost to the Texans and Jaguars while beating the Titans, Patriots, and Colts. With it being far more likely that SOV is a utilized tiebreaker against the Texans than the Ravens the optimal outcome of this game is predetermined for us.

Optimal Outcome: Lions Victory

Falcons @ Jets (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏

At 4-7 with Tim Boyle starting at Quarterback the Jets season is all but over. But wait, there’s still a path for them to make the playoffs. The Path would involve them winning out while a few things fell their way including a handful of Bills losses particularly against teams like the Patriots and Dolphins. Let’s nip this in the bud while we can and root for the Falcons to down the Jets and in the process essentially extend their playoff drought to 13 seasons.

Optimal Outcome: Falcons Victory

Cardinals @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

One of the bigger games for Bills fans to monitor this week will require the Mafia to root for one Kyler Murray. The Cardinals are a somewhat competitive team as of late which is good news considering the Steelers are trying to slide into the playoffs over the Bills. A Kyler Murray led victory, no matter how it is achieved, is optimal for the Bills and quickly would raise the odds Buffalo can still go on a playoff run.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals Victory

Dolphins @ Commanders (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏👏

The AFC East title is not yet out the window, but it’s getting close. Buffalo desperately needs Miami to drop a couple games before Week 18 and likely will need at least one to come in surprising fashion. Can the Commanders surprise the Dolphins? Probably not, but they do have some solid defenders and a Quarterback that CAN turn it on and compete. Maybe this is the week the Dolphins embarrass themselves? Bills fans really hope so.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders Victory

Broncos @ Texans (Sunday 4:05PM) 👏👏👏

This is the most difficult game to decide the optimal outcome for because both teams currently sit ahead of the Bills in the wildcard standings. At 6-5 the Broncos have 1 fewer loss than the Bills but their H2H win over Buffalo pushes their overall lead closer to 1.5 games. The Texans also sit at 6-5 with a 3-3 conference record, better than the Bills 3-5, making them almost as dangerous as the Broncos. The optimal outcome here is based on which tie breaker holds more weight, that would be H2H, making a loss by Denver the better option in this game.

Optimal Outcome: Texans Victory

Panthers @ Buccaneers (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

We take the same approach to this game as we do Seahawks @ Cowboys on Thursday night. Buffalo unfortunately won’t face the Panthers this season but did take down the Buccaneers in Orchard Park. That means a win by the latter provides Buffalo with an SOV and SOS boost, which though minute is optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers Victory

Browns @ Rams (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏👏👏

There is some very real hope that this matchup may just go Buffalo’s way. Led by their defense Cleveland has just 4 losses on the season but with a sputtering offense there are very real concerns that they can maintain that pace. Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off their best performance of the season, a 37-14 trouncing of the Cardinals. Can Los Angeles pull off the upset here? Let’s hope so.

Optimal Outcome: Rams Victory

49ers @ Eagles (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏

This game has next to no meaning but with 6 weeks left in the season there is without a doubt an optimal outcome. Buffalo won’t see the 49ers in the regular season but did play the Eagles in one of the best games of the 2023 season. That means there is a minor SOS boost here, though unimportant, it is optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles Victory

Chiefs @ Packers (Sunday 8:20PM) 👏👏

We are digging really really deep here but there is still an unrealistic possible scenario where Buffalo is competing with the Chiefs for seeding and/or a playoff spot. If Kansas City drops a few games down the stretch, as crazy as it seems, the Broncos could catch them and push them into the Wildcard convo. There is also the chance they win the division and Buffalo somehow comes away with the AFC East crown. While it’s ok to doubt either of those occur a loss on Sunday night begins to make each more realistic, root for that.

Optimal Outcome: Packers Victory

Bengals @ Jaguars (Monday 8:15PM) 👏👏

After the Jaguar’s Week #12 win over the Texans, they all but locked up the AFC South. That means there are few scenarios where we should root against them moving forward. This week we root for them to down the Bengals and, in the process, basically eliminate them from the playoff race. Less teams in the playoff race means more chances at the playoffs for the Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Jaguars Victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (All tiebreakers considered).

Jaguars (9-3, 7-2 WLC)**
Ravens (9-3, 6-3 WLC)**
Chiefs (8-4, H2H Win over MIA)**
Dolphins (8-4, H2H Loss to KC)**
Texans (7-5, H2H Win over PIT)*
Steelers (7-5, 3-1 DIV, H2H Loss to HOU)*
Browns (7-5, 3-2 DIV)*
Colts (6-6, 4-4 WLC)
Broncos (6-6, 3-5 WLC, H2H Win over BUF)
Bills (6-6, 3-5 WLC, H2H Loss to DEN)
Raiders (5-7, 3-5 WLC)
Titans (5-7, 2-6 WLC, H2H Win over CIN)
Bengals (5-7, 1-7 WLC, H2H Loss to TEN)
Chargers (4-8, H2H Win over NYJ)
Jets (4-8, H2H Loss to LAC)
Patriots (3-9)

** Division Leader * Wildcard

Rooting Interests Week #13