Asked a similar question last night that was apparently too open ended, so I want to simplify things. We have an 19 start sample size, which historically is plenty to determine whether or not you have your QB of the future.
Here are some modern QBs and how they fared in their first 19 games:
Zach Wilson: 3546 yards, 56.2% cmp, 13 TDs, 16 INTs, 74.9 QB rating
Josh Allen: 3653 yards, 56.8% cmp, 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 71.4 QB rating
Sam Darnold: 4172 yards, 59.6% cmp, 24 TDs, 24 INTs, 76.6 QB rating
Kenny Pickett: 3734 yards, 62.3% cmp, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 78 QB rating
Drew Lock: 4333 yards, 59.2% cmp, 24 TDs, 20 INTs, 78.2 QB rating
Daniel Jones: 4437 yards, 61.9% cmp, 29 TDs, 19 INTs, 83 QB rating
Davis Mills: 4320 yards, 65.2% cmp, 26 TDs, 18 INTs, 85.8 QB rating
Kyler Murray: 4508 yards, 64.7% cmp, 24 TDs, 17 INTs, 86.1 QB rating
Tua Tagovailoa: 4144 yards, 67.2% cmp, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 90.7 QB rating
Joe Burrow: 5185 yards, 66.5% cmp, 33 TDs, 16 INTs, 95.1 QB rating
Justin Herbert: 5514 yards, 67.1% cmp, 40 TDs, 13 INTs, 98.7 QB rating
Needs to be a “can’t evaluate due to awful OL & incompetence at every coaching position” option.