I’m sure some of you have noticed that while the Chiefs are still the best team in the league in 2023, we are winning differently than we normally do. The following is an attempt to give newer fans a bit of historical context on the change, and also to correct the notion that Mahomes’ level of play is declining.

When PM came into the NFL in 2017, he had arguably the best situation any rookie quarterback has ever faced. He was drafted by a team with a first-ballot HoF coach, a first-ballot HoF TE, and a first-ballot HoF WR. That team also had Pro-Bowlers at left tackle, right tackle and (briefly) running back. They also had a Pro Bowl QB who was unusually welcoming and open to Mahomes and famously did everything he could to help him improve. Obviously, PM was an amazing talent, but great talent doesn’t always translate in this league, and it’s no knock on Pat to acknowledge that his amazing supporting cast contributed to his early success.

That 2018 Chiefs team scored more points than any other team in NFL history. It was also probably the most unbalanced team ever. Because as great as the O was, the D routinely ranked last, and that caught up with us in the AFCCG that year (which we lost on a coin flip). So from March 2019, Veach and company followed a deliberate policy of strengthening the D every single year, even when that required letting the offense stagnate or decline. This approach has produced 2 Lombardis, but it also means that Mahomes has had an incrementally worse supporting cast every single year of his career.

Some examples:

OTs in 2019: Eric Long and Mitch Schwartz, both Pro-Bowlers

OTs in 2021: Orlando Brown Jr and Nick Allegretti

OTs in 2023: Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor

Primary Receivers in 2019: Kelce and Tyreek

Primary Receivers in 2022: Kelce and Juju

Primary Receivers in 2023: Kelce and ???

Running back and interior O-line would be the two places where this trend is less clear. The current interior line is clearly better than our 2018 version, and McKinnon/Pacheco is our best RB tandem since Kareem Hunt. Still, I think any objective observer would agree that overall, both our O-line and skill position players are worse now than they were in 2018, just as one would expect from a team whose rookie QB is now on a veteran contract.

Here’s the point: as Mahome’s supporting cast has gone from stellar to pretty good, any reasonable person would expect his offensive output to decline. And that’s actually okay so long as the D improves at the same time. Putting it another way, if your D is #22 overall, you damn well better have the #1 O, but if your D is in the top 5, a top 5 O is just fine.

Which brings us to 2023. Once again, our O is being asked to do more with less, using journeymen and rookies to fill roles once manned by Pro Bowlers. Unlike last year, it’s affecting our output. We’re still good - 7th in yards per game, 3rd in passing yards per game - but we have an issue with giveaways (17, tied for 2nd-worst in the league) and poor red zone offense. Personally, I think both of those things will improve. Giveaways tend to be somewhat random, and there’s no way Andy’s red zone offense doesn’t take a leap come the playoffs. But even if this offense doesn’t improve, it may not matter because this is by far the best D of the Mahomes era.

Did you ever imagine a Mahomes team would have a D that was 4th in yards allowed and 2nd in scoring? It kind of seems unfair, doesn’t it? How, in a salary-capped league, can one team possibly have the best quarterback and a top D? The answer, of course, is “by drafting insanely well and being very, very cheap”. That approach means that we occasionally have to say goodbye to top veterans and replace them with rookies and journeymen, but it has also kept us contending with a QB on a veteran contract, something most teams fail to do.

So in summary…

1. The 2018 Chiefs were probably the most talented offensive unit ever, and Mahomes was unlikely to ever match those numbers even if the team stayed heavily offense-focused.
2. Veach and co made a deliberate choice to prioritize defense over offense starting in 2019, because they believed in Mahomes’ ability to lift up less talented players, and that choice has worked out like gangbusters.
3. This D is so good we will contend even if the O doesn’t continue to improve, but if the O does improve, look out.