Nio’s pretty clearly dying on the vine right now. Layoffs this week, consolidation of the Alps brand, and continued downward pressure from brands like BYD and Li has them struggling. The whole Nio Phone project will eventually be a write-off. Eventually, so will be the battery swap infrastructure too. If they survive, it’ll likely be through some kind of restructuring process or by taking outside investment.

Xpeng is doing better only because of the Volkswagen architectural investment, but even then they’re headed for tough times. Growth just hasn’t been where they’re wanted it to be, price cuts continue to be a problem, and profitability is nil.

Lotus is fine, it’s wholly Geely-owned and seems to have a long horizon — the HQ for Lotus Nyo was just established in Wuhan. Unless the parent company runs into trouble, Lotus is pretty safe over there cranking out upmarket SEA offerings.