US EV sales have been going up every year since 2010 when the Leaf and Volt came out. Some years grow more than others. Check my reasoning here. I think 2024 will have little if any volume growth. There are more EVs to choose from than ever, but 2 things look like they could slow sales next year (starting now actually).
One, NACS: nearly every automaker has said they will switch from CCS/J1772 to NACS in 2025. So if you by a non Tesla in 2024, you are buying the last year of CCS. This is like buying Betamax during its closeout sale.
Two, interest rates. Vehicle loan rates are super high right now. Most people buy cars using financing. Higher rates means higher payments (or longer terms)… Some people might sit on the sidelines and wait for rates to drop.
Together these two could be a one two punch that slow growth in 2024.
What do you think? Are there other big factors (pro or con) fit next year?
Right. No one will buy a car with a CCS port just like no one bought the iPhone 14 with the lightning port after the USB-C transition was announced. Except that’s bullshit and no one cared, just like no one should care about this CCS vs NACS.
This NACS misinformation campaign is getting out of hand. Every EV board is full of people like you trying to make the case that non-NACS cars are going to be worthless, when a $200 adapter will make the whole thing a non-issue. I would love to know who’s funding this.