I was just messing around with The NY Times playoff projection calculations.

What I found - almost any combination of winning against Steelers + Bengals, +2 AFC wins gives 97%+ chance of making it.

If we split, we need to win 3 AFC games and we’d have ~94%.

If we lose to Steelers + Bengals, we’d need to win any 5 games and we’d make it. If we win any 4, it drops to ~60% chance if we drop another AFC game, and 70% if we drop another NFC game.

Win out? 90% chance for the Bye week 😈