With the backfield split between Harris and Warren is Harris still a viable RB2?

Debating on trading for him but not sure if it’s worth it, or if he’s just having a good month.

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    1 year ago

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    The assumption around fantasy football circles is that Najee Harris is a dusty, irrelevant fantasy asset. And that’s largely driven by the fact that, for the first month-plus of the season, Harris was…well, he was bad.

    Harris averaged a pathetic 6.7 PPR points per game from Week 1 to Week 5 this season. The Steelers then had their bye in Week 6, and things haven’t been the same since. Over Harris’ last four outings, he’s scored no fewer than 10.5 PPR points, averaging 15.1 PPR points per contest.

    Interestingly enough, this exact trend happened last season. In 2022, pre-Pittsburgh bye, Harris had a 10.9 PPR points per game average. That shot up to 15.2 post-bye.

    And, to be clear, Harris’ work in the Pittsburgh offense has gotten better. During his bad opening stretch, he was averaging a running back rush share per game of roughly 65%, and his target share per game rate was just under 6%. During his last four games, the running back rush share has dipped a little to 60%, but his target share is up to an impressive 14.4%.

    If we were guaranteed that type of target share from here on out, Harris would be totally fine. He wouldn’t be a sell candidate.

    I’m just not sure it’s sustainable.

    According to Next Gen Stats’ data, during the first five weeks of the season, Harris was seeing a target on about 13% of his routes run. That ranked in just the 14th percentile among relevant running backs.

    Over his last four games, that number has increased to 33%. Of the 50 running backs with 40 or more routes run during this stretch, only Aaron Jones has seen a higher targets per route run rate. Harris has seen more targets per route run than Alvin Kamara!

    That, to me, is unsustainable, especially when you consider Harris saw a target on 19% of his routes run in 2021 and 2022.

    Let’s not ignore his touchdown production, either. He’s now scored in three of his last four games, boosting his point totals pretty dramatically.

    Pittsburgh does have an OK playoff schedule, so if you’re looking good for that time of year, you may want to keep Harris around. But if you’re in need of a win, now might be the time to sell given the Steelers get the Browns this week.