I looked at EPA/play on plays with between 30-70 win% for both the pass and rush offense. (Basically ‘garbage time’ filtered out). And the results were worse than I expected.
Since Dallas has had a lot of weird game scripts with blowouts etc., it is possible some of these stats may be influenced by a small sample size
Weeks 1-7 on plays with 30-70% WP:
Dropback EPA/play = #2 Dropback Succ Rate = #4
Rush EPA/play = #32 Rush Succ Rate = #32
The pass offense has been top5 outside of garbage time. The rush offense has been the worst in the league.
But that doesn’t even cover it. The cowboys rush EPA/play in that situation is (-0.462)/play. #31 is the Saints at (-0.264). The difference from Dallas at #32 to the Saints at #31 is the same as #31 to #14.
The pass offense has been worth +0.439/play. Only beaten by MIA at +0.590/play (LOL btw). Their pass plays in these situations have been worth +0.901 more than their run plays. That is the highest disparity in the league. The only team close is MIA at +0.829 (and MIA just happens to be #1 in rush EPA/play overall). No other team has a difference above +0.380.
Not great, Bob.
Ok so maybe we might need Henry