Labour 49% Cons 19% Reform 11% Lib Dems 9% Green 7%
I guess you could say reform and tories are 29% and alot if people wont vote reform as they are not standing in that area. But its interesting still
Labour 49% Cons 19% Reform 11% Lib Dems 9% Green 7%
I guess you could say reform and tories are 29% and alot if people wont vote reform as they are not standing in that area. But its interesting still
Reform will be nothing but a vote spoiler vast majority of places they do stand. A party for disgruntled Torys to vote for who otherwise wouldn’t bother voting next GE as they would never vote Labour or Lib Dem.
If they do stand in Blue Wall seats I will be very surprised as they will cost Torys seats they would have retained, even now, and help counter act the drag on results in those seats when both Labour and Lib Dem stand. Uxbridge was winnable if the Lib Dems or Greens didn’t stand, for example, even though both of them had a pathetic amount of votes. We need less Jo Swinson “I can win the GE to become PM” and more pragmatic about where to focus.
Reform will be looking to be paid off by the Torys, and will only stand in Red Wall seats that they can act as a spoiler against Labour. Their main job is to drag the Torys to the right as much as possible since they caught the dog with Brexit.
I think Reforms plan is what you say but I can’t see them standing down from “blue wall” seats. If the conservatives lose badly, especially to the Lib Dem’s, they could see that as a sign they need to shift back to the centre right.
But if Reform can cost the conservatives some seats there it could make them think they have to shift further right to reclaim those votes. Makes the choice harder at least.
Its possible but in that situation I can see the Torys splitting if they lost that bad into two parties, center right and far right. Its already long over due and they were very lucky that Brexit didn’t result in the split.
Having to rebuild from being the 3rd or even 4th largest party would absolutely decimate their candidate pool of credible candidates and by the next GE they will have lost a significant amount of members due to age. It would be a similar task to the rebuilding of Labour under Smith/Blair but without the union support to build on.
Reform need the legitimacy and credibility that the Torys give them, I am just doubtful that when push comes to shove that they would risk killing that.
It looks to me that, with the Tories tearing themselves apart and Reform bleeding away Tory votes, we’ll see Farage’s takeover of the Tory party starting after the next GE. Wether this two-pronged attack is being coordinated behind the scenes or just because they’re like the scorpion on the frog remains to be seen but the effect will be similar.
What’ll be interesting is to see if the party splits or the more moderate MPs see a right wing party under a populist leader as the price to pay for getting back into power (something that rarely ends well).
Reform aren’t going to do a deal with the Conservatives as they oppose most of their policies.
They only stood down in their previous incarnation in 2019 to “get Brexit done”.