Actual Record: 8-2

Expected Record: 8-2

Reeling off 5 wins in a row sure feels good with a lot of promising picks the rest of the way. We have finally caught back up to where we would have expected to be at this point in the season.

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I don’t care about the stupid math stuff nerd. What’s the pick!?

Detroit Lions. Never thought I would see the day. There are actually quite a few big favorites this week, but the majority have already been taken.

• MIA (-12.5)
• SF (-11.5)
• DAL (-10.5)
• WAS (-9.5)
• DET (-9)
• BUF (-7)

From that list, DET is the only team available to us. Texans are the 2nd best option, but as 5 point favorites, it’s probably best to avoid them this late in the season, especially with the questions marks around Arizona with Conner and Murray back.

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Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	DET	80%	17.76%	14.47
2	HOU	68%	15.76%	14.39
3	JAX	73%	14.89%	14.33
4	DEN	58%	13.44%	14.29

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Risky Pick

The risky pick is the pick you should go with that will maximize your chances of going undefeated for the rest of the season at the expense of the current week. It’s typically a team with a lower chance of winning in the current week but will have no usefulness rest of season so it will help you long term if you can pull off the win this week.

The risky pick this week, this week is the Houston Texans. I wouldn’t completely discount this pick as they’ve looks much better lately thanks to the development of CJ Stroud, but the gain you make from saving DET (for next week), just isn’t really worth it in my opinion.

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Full Season Outlook

The beauty of this model is that it looks at the entire season as a whole. Based on past picks, this is what the rest of the season would look like based on what we know right now.

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Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BAL	HOU	100%
2	BUF	LV	100%
3	DAL	ARI	0%
4	SF	ARI	100%
5	WAS	CHI	0%
6	MIA	CAR	100%
7	KC	LAC	100%
8	LAC	CHI	100%
9	CLE	ARI	100%
10	SEA	WAS	100%
11	DET	CHI	80%
12	MIN	CHI	74%
13	TB	CAR	80%
14	PIT	NE	76%
15	NO	NYG	88%
16	PHI	NYG	95%
17	JAX	CAR	84%
18	GB	CHI	70%

CAR, CHI, and NYG continue to look awful. The remainder of the season seems to be focusing on these three teams. Week 18 still looks like the biggest hurdle ROS.

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Nerdy Math Stuff

P(Win Out) = 17.76%. That’s about 1 in 6.

E(Wins) = 14.47

Should still lose another 1-2 games this year, but that number is falling every week.

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Methodology

In the past I had pulled probability data from 538 but apparently they got out of the business. I now pull in future probability data from NumberFire and SurvivorGrid, then average the two.

With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it’s optimal to do so.

The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (100+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you’re in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.

I make no personal evaluations of any teams or matchups. I trust the odds makers in Vegas and the people betting on those games to know more than I do. So if you’re thinking, “Do you really trust player X?” or “Are you really picking team Y on the road?” The simple answer is that, other people with much more insight and knowledge than I could ever have have determined that Team A is that much better than Team B despite any special pleading from me or you. My picks are coming from a purely mathematical perspective using the odds that others have provided elsewhere. If you think a team isn’t as good as their line suggests, then take it up with Vegas.

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Download

Every year I got a lot of “well what if I have to pick multiple teams in week X?” or “What if my league, you have to pick only losers?” or “What about team A, B, or C this week?”

I tried to make the file as all encompassing as possible, so if your survivor league has some weird quark or wrinkle in it download the file and give it a shot. If the file still doesn’t answer your question, let me know and I might add the feature in.

You can download the file here from Mediafire. – This link will likely only be good for week 1 this year while the probabilities don’t come from 538.

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Disclaimer

Yes I went undefeated three years ago. No, do not expect those results this season. 2020 had the highest percentage of people go undefeated in at least the last decade, so it was an easier year with fewer upsets. In 2019 I lost 3 games by week 12 and last year had 3 losses by week 10. This isn’t a “guaranteed to win” system, just one that gives you the mathematically best chance of going undefeated. Variance is a thing, and we’ve all seen teams lose as double digit favorites.

The probability of going undefeated entering a season is about 0.5% or 1 in 200. This is typical to start the season. Don’t come harping at me if/when I pick a losing team.

Good luck to everyone this season!