Before we can address the question, we have to address the criteria that is unstated but very obviously true. The order of importance of how MVPs are selected goes by the following:
- Your team has to be winning/playoff bound. (100% of MVPs in the last decade)
- You have to be a QB. (100% of MVPs the last decade)
- You have to be an extremely efficient QB. (90% of QBs were top 5 in EPA or ANY/A the last 10 years)
- You have to have enough bulk stats to back up your efficiency stats. (60% of them have been top 5 in Yards)
- You have to have fan recognition (be a big name/good story).
The only exception to the efficiency rule is Cam Newton in 2015, a year he had 10 rushing TDs.
The current leaders in EPA are:
- Purdy
- Dak
- Mahomes
- Allen
- Tags
The current ANY/A leaders are:
- Purdy
- Tags
- Stroud
- Goff
- Dak
Top 5 in yards per game:
- Stroud
Cousins(injured) Tags- Goff
- Howell
- Mahomes
(Dak is 6th, fyi)
Based off this, my initial thoughts are Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Tags and Stroud.
Currently the top 5 for Vegas betting are:
- Mahomes
- Hurts
- Tags
- Jackson
- Burrow
This tells me that stupid bets are on Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and the smart money is on Mahomes or Tags. The real value? Purdy, Stroud and Dak at +2000-3000.
Of the 5 that seem most likely to compete for the award based on efficiency/bulk stats, here are their remaining schedules:
- Mahomes: Eagles, Raiders x2, Packers, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Chargers
- Stroud: Cards, Jags, Broncos, Jets, Titans x2, Browns, Colts
- Tags: Raiders, Jets x2, WFT, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills
- Dak: Panthers, WFT x2, Hawks, Bills, Lions
- Purdy: Jags, Bucs, Eagles, Hawks, Cards, Ravens, WFT, Rams
Why is tua ranked higher than purdy even though purdy has better numbers and their situations are similar(great skill guys, bad O-lines, great playcallers)?
Purdy had 3 rough games in a row, maybe only the bengals were getting back into contender form. Got outplayed by cousins. Tua lost to 3 teams everyone thought were going to the SB (it was the bills last good game of the year).
Not sure about accuracy of the other QBs’ remaining schedules, but you left out the Eagles and Dolphins on Dak’s list.
Why does that tell you “smart money” is on Mahomes?
All this tells us is that everyone has long accepted he is the best QB in the league, so even when his stats don’t justify being the MVP favorite a lot of people will still bet on him, so Vegas isn’t going to drop his odds.
If anything this sounds like dumb money is on him.
I can only say that Purdy is not going to win MVP
49ers are too stacked + the mid season slump where he “only” had CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle (which is a skill position group most teams would kill for).
This also feels like over fitting data to history - good QBs tend to have good advanced stats, but that’s a correlation, not causation, relationship.
since nobody is having the clearly best year, its going to be one of the 2 qbs who lead their team to the 1 seed. though i have my doubts they give it to mahomes again even if kc gets the 1 seed, unless he goes on tear. if its still kc and phi on top at the end of the season, it might go to hurts.
I feel like Goff would have a shot but we score to many rushing TDs. If we were more pass heavy he’s maybe on 19 right now and a MVP favourite.
Looks like ATM Tua is the only one who’s in the top 5 for all 3 categories. But he doesn’t have any “big game” wins this year. He’s also got to go against the Jets’ D twice so his stats will look a little uglier in the next 5ish weeks unless he runs up the numbers against weak teams.
Still half a season to go so it’s probably Mahomes.