47% chance of a successful 4th down conversion. 33% chance of a successful FG.

  • If FG is successful: 12% chance to win

  • If FG fails: 6% chance to win

  • If conversion is successful: 12% chance to win.

  • If conversion fails: 7% chance to win.

Actual decision made - take a delay of game penalty and then punt.

Todd Boyles is just consistently making the mathematically incorrect decisions tonight.