47% chance of a successful 4th down conversion. 33% chance of a successful FG.
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If FG is successful: 12% chance to win
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If FG fails: 6% chance to win
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If conversion is successful: 12% chance to win.
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If conversion fails: 7% chance to win.
Actual decision made - take a delay of game penalty and then punt.
Todd Boyles is just consistently making the mathematically incorrect decisions tonight.
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