I’m a dinosaur and only know OG stats. I’ve sorted hated these manufactured stats but am open to change. I understand conceptually what it is (more or less) but not how it’s calculated or how it’s not sorta arbitrary. I’m not convinced it’s better especially when they say AI is overrated. Dude was a beast.
And are there other new stats I need to learn?
ELI5 but also open to complexity.
Basically just FG% mixed with FT%, and also gives extra credit for made 3s
if you get 20 possessions, and you go 10/20 from 2 in them, you have 20 points and your FG% is 50%
if you get 20 possessions and you go 5/10 from 2, and then 2/5 from three, and in the other 5 you get fouled and go 8/10 at the line, you get 24 points and a FG% of 46.6%
FG% would suggest number 1 was more efficient, TS just takes into account that 3 > 2, and takes into account freethrows as well
10/20 from 2 = 50% FG, but 20 points
10/20 from 3 = 50% FG, but 30 points
This is why FG% is not a good stat. It doesn’t take into account the difference in value between 2s and 3s (and FTs). The FG% is the same yet scenario 2 is giving you 50% more points.
TS% = points/(2 * (FGA + .44 * FTA)))
This basically tries to account for the different values that each way to score provides. Scenario 1 has a 50% TS. Scenario 2 has a 75% TS. Huge difference despite the FG% being the same.
IIRC an easy shorthand is just thinking of it as converting every scoring attempt into a two-point attempt, and determining how efficient that player “uses” possessions. The main flaw with FG% is that it doesn’t account for the value-add of shooting from three-point territory, and eFG%'s flaw is that it doesn’t account for a player drawing fouls, scoring and-ones, and converting free-throws. TS% pulls all that together into one equation for efficiency. It’s worth noting that TS% has to estimate how often a player draws/converts a continuation, so it’s not as accurate for small sample sizes.
This is one reason why TS% can exceed 100%: it’s possible to score so efficiently that you cannot replicate it with two-pointers alone.