This is the Director’s Cut/Deleted Scenes version of my FantasyPros article. Similar to what I post on my blog.
Check out this week’s YouTube video if you want a break from reading and want to hear me also moonlight about cheeseburgers.
I’ve been meaning to do an analysis on Fantasy Football stacks for a while. This past week I actually did the math on the two top stacks of the week – Prescott/Lamb and Herbert/Allen – and surprisingly, the better stack came back as Herbert/Allen.
Wait, what is FGW? Here’s where I explain that in writing and on YouTube.
TL;DR: FGW is the likely change in win percentage of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP. Going from 50% to 95% is FGW of 0.45. % Started also matters.
The list is surprising because Prescott and Lamb both matched or outperformed Herbert and Allen, respectively. It also may feel counter-intuitive to say Prescott/Lamb gets a score of 0.40 while - sneak preview to the charts below - Lamb by himself is 0.39. What’s up with that?
This is an interesting statistical problem. If you have both Prescott and Lamb on your roster, you almost certainly played Lamb (98%), so he gets a high fantasy games won score by himself at 0.39. The Prescott/Lamb stack was amazing, but less common to be in starting lineups (due to Dak’s 83% started number), so the stack itself only graded out to 0.40.
Put another way: For Week 10, having Prescott/Lamb on your roster was probably better than having Herbert/Lamb. But a lot of that value was just from starting Lamb. The starting lineup stack of Prescott/Lamb was less directly helpful helpful than the more common starting lineup stack of Herbert/Allen
Now that we’re all confused and using too much brain glucose for Friday afternoon, let’s rip through Week 10.
Fantasy Games Won: Director’s Cut
Check out the explanation for what this list is in the title text!
- I keep hoping to figure out another Board Game namesake to go with Amon-Ra (Amun Re) and Cole Kmet (Kemet). There are a lot of Viking themed games, so maybe Hockenson is one by default. 878 Vikings it is!
- I hope nobody gave up on Jahmyr Gibbs during the referendum on Lions’ workload division. Now we just need the same thing to happen in Atlanta where the rookie finally gets the run.
- Kittle with another week to contribute to high-variance. Anyone hear from Brandon Aiyuk lately?
The Tyler Bass-Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs Triple-stack was especially bad this week
- Time for Hopkins managers to hang up the Levi’s. Our Will Levis has holes in the knees. Someone get Andy Lee out of retirement so we can put some jeans on again.
- Trevor Lawrence spent most of the season scoring slightly below average. 2.1 points is way more than slightly below.
- Guess it’s time to finally watch the Terminator sequels, so I can stay on point with Derrick Henry allegories.
- Brandin Cooks is still only 30. What.
- Only 6% of fantasy managers boarded Noah’s ark this week.
- Last time Brian Robinson did this (week 2) his percent started shot up to 82%. Probably gonna happen again. Maybe he’ll score more than 7 points this time.
Leaderboard Updates
Travis Etienne had a bad game, but is still 1-2 bad games from falling to RB3.
The kickers are almost gone from the Return on Investment leaderboard.
Trevor Lawrence now clearly the leader for Least Valuable Player. That happened fast. This is also before incorporating Thursday’s Burrow game.
Lawrence is also still worse per investment than Nick Chubb.
Remember the Jaguars
Starting Trevor “Sunshine” Lawrence through the first half of the season was a lot like watching Remember the Titans – not a particularly great movie, but there wasn’t usually a better option in the genre. If your team is in need of a cliche run thru the woods to get everyone to finally come together, just remember we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. It’s been a privilege and an honor, good luck in Week 11.
This week for who lost the week? Keaton Mitchell…