Another day, another topsy-turvy match from Sinner. And Medvedev too.
I wondered about whether Sinner’s form would dip, and it seemed to dip big time in the 2nd set. 1st serve% dropped to I believe mid-50s, and his FH started spraying when pulled wide again. The serve also fell off, big time, and I started to worry if Sinner might fumble the bag really hard on this one.
To Medvedev’s credit, he changed things up in the 2nd and began to play tighter to the baseline and drive shots more aggressively at Sinner to try to extract errors. That being said, I think he missed a lot of opportunities to capitalize on the slower, middle-of-box second serves Sinner was tossing him from the late 2nd to early 3rd set. If your goal is to try to pressure Sinner’s groundstrokes, why not apply immediate pressure off a serve you know is going to be soft? I know Medvedev’s groundstrokes tend to be long and require some windup, but he’s got great biomechanics; I don’t see a mechanical reason that bars him from truncating swings and pouncing on 2nd serves.
Job’s not done yet, though. I can see either Alcaraz or Djokovic giving him a lot of trouble. Alcaraz has given Sinner trouble before because Sinner needs “reset shots”, where he resets the “board state” before having another go at things, and Alcaraz is very good at immediately exploiting any gap he’s given. Alcaraz does struggle against big hitters, being rushed, and BH/BH exchange enjoyers (and Sinner is all three of those), but he’s talented, has great instincts, and is a quick learner. While I’d put my money on Sinner to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alcaraz wins.
Djokovic plays closer to the baseline and with more aggression, and he’s not going to throw in an absolute muppet performance on serve like 3rd set Med. I’m 10000% sure he’s got hours of 4K Full HD Match Highlights (Highest Quality) of Sinner’s last couple months and combing over it to see what he’ll do different this time. My first guess would be constantly redirect into the Sinner FH + taking 2nd serve returns early, but who’s to say. I’m just a redditor, after all.
Congrats to Sinner for making the final on his debut as an official player (I’m not sure if I’d count alternate appearances), and congrats for rapidly rebalancing the H2H against Med. Perhaps a long-overdue win over Tsitsipas at the AO is on the cards?
To Medvedev’s credit, he changed things up in the 2nd and began to play tighter to the baseline and drive shots more aggressively at Sinner to try to extract errors. That being said, I think he missed a lot of opportunities to capitalize on the slower, middle-of-box second serves Sinner was tossing him from the late 2nd to early 3rd set. If your goal is to try to pressure Sinner’s groundstrokes, why not apply immediate pressure off a serve you know is going to be soft? I know Medvedev’s groundstrokes tend to be long and require some windup, but he’s got great biomechanics; I don’t see a mechanical reason that bars him from truncating swings and pouncing on 2nd serves.
He effectively used that tactic in Rotterdam final. In general I don’t think there is any mechanical reason for returning so far, he simply is extremely confident from the baseline and thinks that, especially against “high-risk” attacking opponents like Sinner, he can have higher chances to win the point this way. This also was effective against Sinner for long time, now Jannik became incredibly consistent and with more stamina, trying to exchange from the baseline now against him is exhausting. So yeah, I agree with you, and Meddie too probably now. Sinner has a decent but still exploitable second serve, and an opponent need to be assertive when returning because they will not have so many chances to outpower him.
Another day, another topsy-turvy match from Sinner. And Medvedev too.
I wondered about whether Sinner’s form would dip, and it seemed to dip big time in the 2nd set. 1st serve% dropped to I believe mid-50s, and his FH started spraying when pulled wide again. The serve also fell off, big time, and I started to worry if Sinner might fumble the bag really hard on this one.
To Medvedev’s credit, he changed things up in the 2nd and began to play tighter to the baseline and drive shots more aggressively at Sinner to try to extract errors. That being said, I think he missed a lot of opportunities to capitalize on the slower, middle-of-box second serves Sinner was tossing him from the late 2nd to early 3rd set. If your goal is to try to pressure Sinner’s groundstrokes, why not apply immediate pressure off a serve you know is going to be soft? I know Medvedev’s groundstrokes tend to be long and require some windup, but he’s got great biomechanics; I don’t see a mechanical reason that bars him from truncating swings and pouncing on 2nd serves.
Job’s not done yet, though. I can see either Alcaraz or Djokovic giving him a lot of trouble. Alcaraz has given Sinner trouble before because Sinner needs “reset shots”, where he resets the “board state” before having another go at things, and Alcaraz is very good at immediately exploiting any gap he’s given. Alcaraz does struggle against big hitters, being rushed, and BH/BH exchange enjoyers (and Sinner is all three of those), but he’s talented, has great instincts, and is a quick learner. While I’d put my money on Sinner to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alcaraz wins.
Djokovic plays closer to the baseline and with more aggression, and he’s not going to throw in an absolute muppet performance on serve like 3rd set Med. I’m 10000% sure he’s got hours of 4K Full HD Match Highlights (Highest Quality) of Sinner’s last couple months and combing over it to see what he’ll do different this time. My first guess would be constantly redirect into the Sinner FH + taking 2nd serve returns early, but who’s to say. I’m just a redditor, after all.
Congrats to Sinner for making the final on his debut as an official player (I’m not sure if I’d count alternate appearances), and congrats for rapidly rebalancing the H2H against Med. Perhaps a long-overdue win over Tsitsipas at the AO is on the cards?
Great comment! I am a Sinner fan and totally agree
He effectively used that tactic in Rotterdam final. In general I don’t think there is any mechanical reason for returning so far, he simply is extremely confident from the baseline and thinks that, especially against “high-risk” attacking opponents like Sinner, he can have higher chances to win the point this way. This also was effective against Sinner for long time, now Jannik became incredibly consistent and with more stamina, trying to exchange from the baseline now against him is exhausting. So yeah, I agree with you, and Meddie too probably now. Sinner has a decent but still exploitable second serve, and an opponent need to be assertive when returning because they will not have so many chances to outpower him.