Well, this week went pretty well for us in regards to tanking this season. The Rams and Packers both won while Denver started to pull away from threatening us in draft capital. Nonetheless, there are still seven weeks of misery left before the first 18 spots in the draft order are calcified, so let’s get into it.

NOTE: I understand that u/firefighteremt19 did a post on this topic several hours beforehand; I just wanted to wait until either late tonight or Monday to post my own thoughts with everything laid out. The Eagles @ Chiefs game won’t affect the math all that much beyond SOS, which when in doubt, we want the NFC team to beat the AFC team. With all that out of the way, let’s get into it.

Tier 0: What this entire scenario is based off of (i.e. disregard if we win)

Panthers @ Titans: Our opponent is the frontrunner for the first overall pick, a pick that they foolishly traded away to get the worst rookie QB currently starting. Unfortunately for us, the Titans have scored a staggering 27.3 points at Nissan (would be 6th in the entire NFL) while the Panthers are allowing a pathetic 27.5 points per game (3rd worst in the NFL, same mark as their points scored per game). Vrabel is 6-2 against Frank Reich when the latter doesn’t have Andrew Luck. Here’s a chance to really establish our spot in the top 5 of the draft; let’s go out there and lose this game.

Tier 1: Games with teams we can pass this week

Patriots @ Giants: I was briefly tempted to pick the Giants due to their harder upcoming schedule compared to New England’s, but I decided not to risk it. We’re looking for Olu or Alt, not one of the top two QB’s. New England isn’t that much weaker in terms of SOS, so there’s a good chance to pass them.

Bears @ Vikings: The Vikings blew a chance to really establish themselves in the Wild Card race with a Josh Dobbs disasterclass. Meanwhile, Chicago has a higher pick than us and is currently picking higher than us with their own selection with the same number of wins as us and a weaker schedule with Justin Fields returning to nearly upset the Lions, a team that will likely be in the Divisional Round if not further. The Vikings are pretty far away from us in the draft order, so this is about as cut and dry as any game you’ll find on this week’s docket.

Tier 2: Games that cushion our pick

Packers @ Lions: Green Bay did well for us beating LA, lowering their draft pick and our SOS. The Lions almost lost to Chicago, so they aren’t exactly unbeatable. Furthermore, they haven’t won on Thanksgiving since the Obama administration, so there’s a chance for Green Bay to put some distance between us in the draft order even for Love’s own struggles.

Commanders @ Cowboys: Put some distance between us and Washington for that pick in case we happen to win another game. Neither really affects SOS although Dallas did play a common opponent in the Chargers. Nonetheless, the Cowboys are in no position to threaten our tank while the Commanders are.

Bucs @ Colts: Beyond the simple reason of FTC and shooting down their playoff hopes, this will put some distance between Tampa and us for draft selection. There’s literally no reason to not root for Tampa to win this game.

Steelers @ Bengals: Joe Burrow’s out for the year, so Cincy’s Super Bowl ambitions this year are done. Furthermore, the Bengals have fewer wins than the Steelers even if the former has a stronger SOS than us. I’d prefer not to worry about tiebreakers in the event that the Bengals slip.

Saints @ Falcons: The Falcons have one more win than us while New Orleans has two. In case we win another game, less damage done to our draft position always helps, which a Falcons win provides.

Jaguars @ Texans: If CJ Stroud gets injured for the season, the Texans are three games ahead of us with the weaker SOS while the Jags are four. The calculation demands Houston continue their dominance over Jacksonville.

Browns @ Broncos: In addition to SOS, putting Denver two wins ahead of us while weakening our SOS due to Cleveland being a shared opponent renders this a clear-cut practical choice to say nothing of how much the Browns deserve to have nothing but failure.

Rams @ Cardinals: Again, I thought about putting the Cardinals into a position to where we could pass them but see Pats @ Giants entry for why I decided not to. We just passed LA for draft position, so here’s hoping they go on a win streak even if Kroenke should go to the deepest circle of Hell.

Chiefs @ Raiders: KC’s in the driver seat for the #1 seed. Vegas has only two games over us with a weaker SOS. Enough said.

Ravens @ Chargers: Strengthens the schedules of the Pats, Bears, and Packers with Baltimore unlikely to challenge our draft positioning. FTR

Tier 3: Games that matter for SOS mostly

49ers @ Seahawks: We play Seattle next month, so a little bit of SOS weakening for us is always welcome. I anticipate Seattle making the playoffs due to how weak the NFC is, so this is why the weaker opponent isn’t wanted to win.

Bills @ Eagles: Only one AFC team is ahead of us, and they played Philly. The Bills could absolutely implode with their schedule, but that’s unlikely to occur with their bye week after this one.

If all goes according to plan:

We would have the 4th overall pick. Only the Cards, Giants and Bears would be ahead of us in the draft order. We can assume that Williams, Maye, and Harrison will be the top 3 picks, so beyond that, the draft is our oyster. Take your pick of Fashanu or Alt and run.