Team:
In New Orleans, where I was over the weekend, the issue that hangs over the organization is whether a Brandon Ingram–Zion Williamson pairing is really the right one going forward. Williamson is brilliant but unreliable and a weird player to build around because of his poor defense and lack of shooting, while Ingram’s reliance on the 17-dribble Tough 2 Tango again showed its limits in the fourth-quarter fade against the Wolves.
As with the Clippers and Warriors, New Orleans is both in the luxury tax and below .500; unlike those two, the Pels don’t blithely shoot cash out of firehoses as a general operating principle. The good news here is that the Pelicans have enough future draft equity, and just enough future salary-cap flexibility, to navigate this situation without a teardown.
Hawkins:
I got a good look at Hawkins in the back-to-back in New Orleans this weekend, where he played 62 total minutes and scored 22 points as the Pels split a back-to-back against Denver and Minnesota. The skinny sharpshooter from Connecticut was a divisive prospect entering the draft, with his ability to bomb away on the move an undeniable skill but persistent questions existing about how much else he could deliver in the course of a game.
Thus far, he’s been a Rorschach test: Whatever you thought coming in, there probably isn’t overwhelming evidence to change your opinion.
Nonetheless, on balance, I’d say the evidence tips in favor of his sticking as a rotation player, with the possibility to be more. First, the Captain Obvious part: He’s a rotation player right now, as a rookie in his first month in the pros, and has hit double figures in nine of the 11 games in which he’s played at least 24 minutes.
While his overall numbers aren’t overwhelming, and injuries to the Pelicans backcourt pressed him into service sooner than perhaps was expected, his core skill has been as advertised: Hawkins has launched 12.4 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, which ranks 11th in the league among players with at least 200 minutes played. His impact would be even greater if he could knock down a few more; thus far, he’s at 36 percent after hitting 38.8 percent as a sophomore for national champion UConn.
Even at that, Hawkins has arguably left money on the table at times and could be closer to 15 3-point attempts per 100. For instance, here’s a “record scratch” from Saturday when he probably should have fired away and perhaps could have been more shot-ready when Dyson Daniels passed it. Instead, Hawkins fails to gain an advantage on the dribble, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker strips the ball out off his leg.
A minute later, with the same defender and a similar close-out distance, it’s splash city. Note here how Hawkins gets great elevation on his jumper and gets it away very quickly; I included the second clip to demonstrate he had plenty of room (by his standard) to take the shot in the first clip.
However, basketball isn’t darts, and the worries about Hawkins being too limited athletically haven’t totally gone away. Even with his shooting, he can’t justify being a late lottery pick (14th overall) if he’s just going to be Troy Daniels 2.0. On that front: Hawkins hasn’t blocked a shot all season, has rarely touched the paint offensively and mostly stays attached to the opponent’s least threatening offensive player.
Even with those limitations, one way Hawkins can improve his value is by leveraging the threat of his shooting to create more passes for teammates. On that front, it was an encouraging weekend; he had eight assists in the two games and has nearly two dimes for every turnover on the season.
Still, work remains. For instance, here’s a scramble play where Daniels ends up with the ball and two panicked Wolves defenders run out at him, thinking he’ll take a last-second 3 with the quarter about to end. Their hasty reaction leaves Cody Zeller wiiiiide open under the basket, and Hawkins picks up his dribble to throw the ball … elsewhere.
Want to see the better version of how that might look? Here’s a different scramble, where Hawkins races in from above the break to beat Kyle Anderson to an offensive board and immediately dishes to Ingram for an and-1:
For the season, Hawkins has shot often enough to average a respectable 21.4 points per 100 possessions, and a third of his shots have been inside the arc; he’s not getting to the rim in the half court, but he’s shown the ability to take a bounce or two into an effective pull-up when opponents run him off the line, including a tough one he hit in the second half against Minnesota.
Overall, the 3-ball is a nice foundation to build on while the rest develops. He’s also only 21, and his body should fill out more (um … right?) in an NBA strength program, which would make him a more reasonable defensive option rather than a “hide at all costs” guy. If Hawkins does that and he keeps making incremental improvement in the other non-shooting phases, his outside stroke should keep him in the league for the next decade.