DISCLAIMER: I LOVE BOTH SOCHAN AND TRE JONES. BOTH ARE VALUABLE PIECES FOR THE SPURS. I just want to ground the endless Sochan vs. Tre debate going on right now in some important context. Sorry this is so long lol.

Starters vs. Bench 3-point shooting anomalies:

• Zach started off the year uncharacteristically bad from 3 (11% in October, 2-18 overall) despite many of those shots being open.
• Wemby has shot 5% (!!!) ENORMOUSLY uncharacteristically bad from 3 on passes from Sochan despite many of those shots being open / good looks (see here).
• Devin’s injury has pushed Branham / Champagnie into the starting lineup on some nights, both of whom have been shooting uncharacteristically poorly from 3. In November (around when Dev first got injured), Branham is shooting 24.1%, Champagnie 29.2%.
• In contrast, Tre Jones plays a lot more with Cedi (45% !!!) and McDermott (51% !!!) in the bench unit who have been shooting LIGHTS OUT from 3. Even though both are good 3-point shooters, those percentages are uncharacteristically good and likely unsustainable given that their career averages are 35.6% (Cedi) and 41.2% (Doug).
• TLDR; The starters’ uncharacteristically bad 3-point shooting is hurting Sochan’s perceived productivity and the bench’s uncharacteristically good 3-point shooting is boosting Jones’ perceived productivity. This should regress to the mean as the season goes on.

Sochan vs. Tre 3-point shooting:

• Sochan is shooting 41.7% on 1.8 3PA per game
• Tre is shooting 23.8% on 2.1 3PA per game.
• TLDR; Sochan is currently shooting significantly better from 3 on similar attempts per game, but it’s still early so we’ll have to see if this stabilizes over the long-term.

Turnovers:

• The Spurs average 16.1 turnovers per game this season, 5th highest in the league.
• Some per game averages:
  • Sochan → 2.5 turnovers
  • Tre → 1.4 turnovers
  • Zach → 2.8 turnovers
  • Wemby → 3.8 turnovers
• Takeaway: Sochan is turning the ball over more than Tre, but not catastrophically so. Also, Zach & Wemby are turning the ball over more than Sochan. Turnovers are a team problem.

Pick & Roll ballhandling responsibilities:

Pick & Roll Synergy Data

• Keldon and Devin have both run more pick & rolls than Jeremy and Tre. And this is with Devin missing 4 games and being limited in another! This reflects the collective nature of the Spurs attack rather than reliance on the point guard (Jeremy / Tre) as the primary initiator.
• Only Devin has an efficient pick & roll points per shot at 1.18.
• Jeremy’s PPS is very bad at 0.41.
• Tre’s PPS is also quite bad at 0.76.
• TLDR; Neither Jeremy nor Tre are scoring efficiently as pick & roll ballhandlers. Devin and Keldon are carrying the primary load in the pick & roll.

Takeaways:

Overall I think the team’s problems less to do with Sochan or Tre individually and more to do with turnovers, injuries, defense, focus, and lack of an elite primary initiator who can consistently create advantages in the half court when the pressure rises.

• Turnovers → The entire team bears responsibility here. Sochan needs to improve, but so does the rest of the team. 5th highest turnovers in the league is killing them.
• Injuries → It’s not a coincidence that the losing streak started the game after Devin got injured. His shooting gravity is immense and he handles a lot of the playmaking load as indicated by the pick and roll numbers. His void makes it hard to accurately evaluate the starting unit’s offense and defense.
• Defense → Partly related to turnovers and injuries. Turnovers lead to transition offense, injuries (Devin) makes it hard to build consistency. Also, both Branham and Champagnie (Devin replacements in the starting lineup) are explicitly worse defenders than Devin which has hurt the starting unit.
• Focus → Despite all these issues, the team has still built significant leads against solid teams during this losing streak: Toronto, Minnesota, Miami, Sacramento. But as a young team, they’ve lost focus, lost those leads, and failed to execute down the stretch under pressure. Despite Keldon and Devin’s experience, this is somewhat expected with Sochan and Wemby playing such large roles at ages 20 and 19, and Devin - the team’s best shooter and pick & roll ballhandler - missing time / being limited with injury.
• Elite initiator → Neither Sochan nor Tre consistently create advantages in the half court as a primary initiator. Tre’s speed and burst enables him to get to the paint more than Sochan, but that doesn’t consistently translate to collapsing the defense or creating advantages given Tre’s other limitations (size, shooting, etc.). Also even when Tre is on the court, the offense does not rely on him consistently running pick and rolls (as demonstrated by the pick & roll data above) or collapsing the defense with paint touches. He does those things, but they’re not the fulcrum of the offense, which remains movement oriented. That’s okay - the point guard doesn’t always need to be the primary initiator or advantage creator, but it’s rough because the Spurs don’t currently have someone who can fulfill that role on the roster. Hopefully Wemby becomes that and he has plenty of time to do so, but he is not currently strong nor developed enough to fulfill that role.

None of this is to deny that there have definitely been rough stretches! Sochan is definitely still learning and growing in his role and makes mistakes! Rather I hope this can:

1. Put some of Sochan and Tre’s performances in context.
2. Clarify that the problem extends beyond Sochan or Tre.
3. Identify that it’s hard to make clear evaluations of the team so far given the early-season shooting variance and Devin’s injury.

Honestly I think the team is going to be fine once Devin is back. The fact that they’ve been able to build significant leads in the 1st half of games against solid teams shows that the starting unit isn’t getting blown out of the water right away most of the time. But they need to learn to be disciplined with turnovers, focus, and defensive intensity, which is a big part of learning how to finish quarters and games, and ultimately of learning how to win consistently.