TLDR - Bears use Panthers pick at #1 to take QB Caleb Williams, and then used their own #5 to trade down and select ED Dallas Turner.
- Chicago Bears (via 1-9 CAR)
Yates: We might look back at Chicago’s decision to trade down with Carolina in March as one of the most impactful of recent years. Not only did the Bears bring in extra picks and a WR1 in DJ Moore, they also landed this projected No. 1 pick in 2024 – a massive coup. And while quarterback Justin Fields has had moments of promise, our FPI projects the Bears’ own pick to be No. 5 overall. If that happens, it’s unlikely Fields showed dramatic improvement over the rest of the season, meaning a reset at quarterback is probably in play.
Miller: Yup, if the Bears don’t turn things around, Fields is likely gone, and the front office will look to reset the quarterback clock. Let’s remember that general manager Ryan Poles didn’t draft Fields and must make a decision after this season on the quarterback’s fifth-year option. To date, Fields hasn’t shown enough to be paid like a top-tier quarterback, and the opportunity to draft a younger player with more promise (who also happens to be much cheaper) is super intriguing.
And we haven’t even gotten to USC’s Caleb Williams yet, widely seen not only as the No. 1 prospect in this class and also a generational prospect. He’s a franchise-changer. Look at what C.J. Stroud has done in his first season in Houston; Williams can be that and more for the Bears.
Reid: If Fields does play well over the Bears’ final six games – he looked good on Sunday against the Lions – but the team continues to lose, it makes for an even more interesting decision for Poles. He has to weigh all of his options. But how can you pass up Williams?
Yes, he still has to clean up some bad habits in the pocket, but his improvisational skill and arm talent are outstanding. And his mobility and playmaking could mask a lot of the Bears’ deficiencies elsewhere. Williams ranks second in the nation in passing (3,633 yards) and has thrown 30 touchdown passes – including an FBS-leading 11 from outside the pocket.
Yates: The Bears should be able to recoup a little bit of draft capital for Fields, too. While his inconsistency as a thrower is part of why they are in this spot, his mobility and flashes will have some allure to other teams, whether it be as a starter or backup. He would cost a team about $3.2 million for 2024, a totally reasonable cost.
Miller: And there would be a market for him. Just look at how many teams outside the top two picks have a need at the position and won’t be able to fill it with a premium player. I love the Falcons for him if they’re not in play to draft one of the top QBs. Fields is from Georgia and originally played for the in-state Bulldogs. And if Arthur Smith is back as coach, Fields fits the RPO-heavy offense Smith was running as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee and earlier last season with Marcus Mariota. Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, Minnesota and maybe even Pittsburgh could theoretically get involved if Fields were to become available.
Reid: I think we’re all in agreement here. Williams is special and has the talent to eventually change the trajectory of a franchise. And while Chicago moved back this past spring when it had the No. 1 pick, there just isn’t a scenario where any trade offer would make me trade back this time.
Our pick for the Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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Giants - QB Luke Maye
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Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Patriots - LT Olu Fashanu
- Chicago Bears (3-8)
Yates: We already got the Bears a quarterback in Williams, which means they have the luxury of flexibility here. If they’re enamored with someone, they can submit the card. But this also feels like a potential trade-down spot. The next best player in my eyes is Joe Alt, the hulking Notre Dame left tackle, but Chicago has a promising young player in Braxton Jones already entrenched at that position. And since Poles already has shown the openness to move down, I wouldn’t be shocked if Chicago did it again to quickly fetch back more capital.
Reid: I agree, Field. Poles likes to accumulate picks and move around at the top of the draft, and this scenario would be no different than in the past. If the Bears stay home, though, it likely would be Alt vs. Alabama pass-rusher Dallas Turner, right? And with the solid play of Jones and the use of a top-10 pick on Darnell Wright in April, the Bears would probably stay away from offensive tackle, meaning they could use this pick to continue building up the defense. The Montez Sweat deadline deal helps, but this team still needs pass-rushers. Chicago ranks last in the NFL again with 15 sacks.
Miller: What about my guy Keon Coleman, the Florida State receiver? He’s 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, explosive after the catch and so physical at the catch point that he will be a red zone safety valve wherever he ends up. The Bears have Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, along with a backfield full of potential starters, but Coleman would round out this group and give Williams a true trio of pass-catchers to grow around.
Reid: I don’t know … Turner lined up on the other side from Sweat is very, very enticing. He is still raw, but he generates pressure (15.5% pressure rate, seventh best in the FBS) and produces (seven sacks). He fits the Bears’ timeline, too, as he could grow with a relatively young defense and turn into a key part of the team’s future.
Yates: I’m intrigued by the Coleman idea, but Jordan has a point here. When the Bears made the move for Sweat, part of the calculus was that it would be slim pickings at the top of Round 2 (where the traded pick was) for pass-rushers. Juxtapose that to the wide receivers in this class, and it makes all the sense in the world to take the clearest potential difference-maker at edge rusher in Turner now. A legitimate receiver could still be there when Chicago picks next because of that position’s depth.
Miller: OK, this does make sense. I’d rather Chicago walk away with my top-ranked edge-rusher (position of need) and grab a receiver in Round 3 than get Coleman here and be without a high-end pass-rusher. I’m won over on Turner.
Reid: Wow, this is the easiest draft room to sway. I thought I’d get more pushback on that.
Our pick for the Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
When they say Caleb Williams would be less expensive, that would only be the case if Fields earned a big second contract. In which case, good deal! But the first pick in the 2024 draft will be more expensive than the 11th pick in the 2021 draft, the only draft where players got cheaper than the previous year. And if you assume they would BOTH be good enough to earn second contracts, then you also have to consider the second contract Caleb Williams would earn would be higher than Fields’ second contract because of the time value of money.
The decision to draft a QB really should ONLY depend on whether you think the QB you are drafting will be better. This “clock resetting” argument that crops up sounds smart but is pretty dumb.
When they say Caleb Williams would be less expensive, that would only be the case if Fields earned a big second contract. In which case, good deal! But the first pick in the 2024 draft will be more expensive than the 11th pick in the 2021 draft, the only draft where players got cheaper than the previous year. And if you assume they would BOTH be good enough to earn second contracts, then you also have to consider the second contract Caleb Williams would earn would be higher than Fields’ second contract because of the time value of money.
The decision to draft a QB really should ONLY depend on whether you think the QB you are drafting will be better. This “clock resetting” argument that crops up sounds smart but is pretty dumb.
That’d be fine. I’m currently indifferent about Caleb but understand the strategy of resetting the clock with a rookie contract.
Verse or Turner at 5 both seem like smart plays
They don’t go into detail on what we could get for Fields - getting a second round pick would certainly help us not feel compelled to trade down from 5 and take BPA.
I’m up for a QB but what do we do with fields? let him start for the year, trade him? Feel like it’s kinda dumb to just chuck up the peace sign at him
If the bears draft a qb, they are definitely trading fields. I think there has to be 3 to 5 teams interested.
That’s why it’s important for him to play well these last 7 games for more reasons than one. If he balls out and Poles still decides to move on, I wouldn’t be surprised if a QB desperate team outside the top 5 gives the Bears their 1st. That’s a no brainer deal for Poles.
If patriots end up with the 4th pick, I could easily see them giving up a haul for that number 1 pick. Should be very interesting to see what Poles would do in that situation
It’s honestly just kind of funny how adverse this sub is to drafting the best prospect we’ve ever had the chance to draft in the most important position in the game.