I’m defining long term as in a player who will contribute after this season and into next. We have around 66M in cap space (81 if we let Bojan go) to improve the roster.
Healthy Long-Term Starters:
Cade - I know his turnovers are high lately, but he’s obviously our best player and a budding star in the league.
Ivey - He showed his potential again last night, and I imagine he will be the long term starter now. I believe Monty benched him for the first 15 games as a challenge for him to get better, which I can tolerate long-term.
Ausar - DPOY is not out of the question for him. But for the love of god I can’t take a wing that shoots 13.8% from 3 forever. He really needs to improve there.
Stew - In my eyes, Stew is a key reserve on a championship team, not a starter.
Duren - TBD. He flashed the 3 ball during Summer League and I’d like to see him take more. Sky is the limit on his potential offensively if he gets that falling. Much improved at the line too.
Healthy Long-Term Reserves:
Killian - I figure Troy will probably re-sign him. He’s a solid backup guard in the league, especially if he keeps shooting ~33% from 3. That’s enough for a back up with his size/strength/skills.
Sasser - I see him as having Lou Will/J Crawford potential
Livers? - TBD on if he can stay healthy. Solid shooter and defensive player.
Bagley - Solid reserve forward
Where can we improve the most to be competitive again?
For me, I think adding a legitimate scoring threat and defensive plus player at the 4 is priority number 1. After that, I think we can get better on the wing as well. I love Ausar, and he could be a core piece here for sure, but having more shooting out there would really help. I could see the 4 spot being improved mid-season, given just how horrible we are and now there’s pressure on Troy to show even some signs of improvement.
Mid-Season Trade Ideas I Would Pursue:
1- Jerami Grant PF Portland: There’s going to be a ton of hemming and hawing in the comments for this. “Why do we want old Pistons all the time? They didn’t win here.” Adding Grant would be a massive improvement to our roster. “But he’s a ball-stopper.” No he’s not. In his role in Portland with Dame, Grant was a solid second or third scoring option depending on the match up, and shot more catch and shoot threes. He’s also currently averaging 22/4 for Portland right now. That said, I think he could be acquired for relatively cheap. Keep in mind, two years ago we couldn’t get a high first directly for Jerami. At two years older, and in the first year of a 5 year 160 million dollar deal, he doesn’t really fit with where Portland is at as a franchise. They could move him, clear cap heading into the new CBA and to give future flexibility to build around their young core of Scoot/Simons/Sharpe.
Trade: Joe Harris, James Wiseman, Killian Hayes, 2 2nds to Portland for Jerami Grant
- Portland will clear ~35M in cap off of next year’s payroll. It’s not enough for them to make a big signing, but it will provide long-term flexibility as the remaining 130 million he’s owed falls off the books. They get 3 expiring contracts back, two of which are young RFA’s next year, providing team control. They also get draft comp.
I think this one is most realistic, given his relationship with Troy and Casey in our FO and where Portland is as a franchise.
2- Kyle Kuzma PF Washington: Washington sucks, he’s on a reasonable contract, and has picked up from where he left off last season. He’s a Michigan native as well, which might bode well in mitigating some character concerns. That said, he is NOT much of a Troy Weaver guy.
Trade: Harris, Sasser, Livers, 4 2nds to Washington for Kyle Kuzma
- We give up a promising young player in Sasser and draft capital. Washington does this to give it some more cap flexibility.
3- Zion Williamson PF New Orleans: This would easily be the riskiest trade of the bunch. Grant is a relatively safe deal, given his character and familiarity with the organization. Zion is a homerun swing. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn’t. Regardless, New Orleans is again a bottom ten team in the league even with him in the starting lineup. That said, his career averages on incredible efficiency make this tempting. Once thought of as a generational prospect, he could be that again and still reach that potential at only 22.
Trade: Bojan, Burks, Ivey, 2029 unprotected first to NOLA for Zion
- This feels like the minimum trade value that could get it done for Zion. He has played in all of NOLA’s games this season, and is still scoring in bunches on the offensive end at a very high efficiency.
Possible 2024 Off-Season Trades:
1- Lauri Markannen SF/PF Utah: This one may not make sense as much as JG. That said, he’s in the penultimate year of his contract now, will be eligible for a relatively high 2025 max and Utah is just 4-9 with him healthy. Danny Ainge showed in the past he was willing to give up good talent for draft picks if the time was right. At 7’1, in his mid twenties and averaging 25 a game, he will be costly. I’ve assumed for this trade we wind up with the 3rd overall pick.
Trade: Bagley, Ivey, #3 overall pick, 2029 unprotected 1st, 2 2nds to UTAH for Lauri Markannen (signs his max offer sheet early to come here)
Giving up Bagley, Ivey, a top 3 pick and a 2029 first may seem like a lot, but Markannen is worth it. As a 7’1 wing with good shooting and defense who can create his own shot, Markannen would provide a huge jump to our offense and defense at a key position of need. He is still only 26, and would be eligible for a 40M+ max, which we could agree to during the off-season. What’s key is that the max could be deferred a year, meaning we would still have a massive amount of cap space.
2- Karl Anthony-Towns C Minnesota: This one only really works out logically if the TWolves lose late in the Playoffs and KAT becomes the scapegoat like DeAndre Ayton. This sub hates KAT for some reason, but he is adequate defensively, provides strong rebounding and decent rim protection (career 1.3BPG). He’s an elite floor-spacing center who is well rounded offensively as well, averaging 23 PPG over his career on 39% from 3.
Trade: Bojan, #3 overall pick, 2029 1st, 2 2nds to Minnesota for KAT
In this scenario, Minnesota balances the books with their long term commitments to Ant/Gobert in exchange for a high draft pick that can provide starter level play on a rookie deal to compliment their long-term growth and flexibility. They also dump his 50M+ salary on us while taking nothing back in return that is a long-term piece. Bojan makes sense for them in this scenario, as he can provide scoring to a contending team.
Possible 2024 Off-Season FA Targets:
1- OG Anunoby SF Toronto: Obviously the top choice for us in FA. He shoots 38% from deep with elite perimeter defense. I would absolutely throw a max at him, since it will only be for approximately 30M a year.
2- Pascal Siakam PF Toronto: The next best choise to Anunoby is easily his teammate. I’d offer another max for Siakam in addition to Anunoby’s since we can afford both.
3- Tobias Harris PF Philly: This is the first non-max player I would offer. Harris on a 2-3 year deal would be valuable on a sub-max contract. Provides good defense, spacing and can attack the basket.
4- Gary Trent Jr SG/SF Toronto: Toronto has a lot of good players. Trent is one of them. He’d be a key reserve for us and occasional starter for injuries.
4- Malik Beasley SG/SF Milwaulkee: Sadly, he’s not a starter, but would help our defense and shooting off the bench.
5- Taylor Horton-Tucker SG/SF Utah: Adds another young prospect for relatively cheap.
6- Jonas Valanciunas: Would be a really, really good reserve big.
7- Miles Bridges SF/PF Charlotte: A massive shot in the dark. Maybe he gets his shit together and looks like the Miles Bridges he is capable of. Maybe not.
My Ideal:
Mid-Season Trade #1 for Grant in the season. Leaves us with ~34 M in cap
Off-Season Trade #1 for Markannen in the off-season. Salary is relatively even.
Trade Bojan away or release him to free up more cap ~49 M in cap
Off-season Signing #1: OG Anunoby to max deal ~19M in cap
Off-season Signing #4: Gary Trent Jr to 3 year 60M deal
MLE to bring in Jonas Valanciunas, if not Kelly Olynyk
Ideal 2024 Roster to Help Me Cope Right Now:
PG: Cade Cunningham/Marcus Sasser
SG: OG Anunoby/Gary Trent Jr/ Umude
SF: Lauri Markannen/Ausar Thompson/Isaiah Livers
PF: Jerami Grant/Isaiah Stewart
C: Jalen Duren/Jonas Valanciunas OR Kelly Olynyk
The above is a pipe dream, obviously, but that feels like a play-off team.
Good trainer for health management and rim finishing (muscle up! Cade)
Good shooting coach(duh!)
slowly start setting up an offense system around Cade, Ivey, Ausar, and Stewart (most stable starters)
I don’t think any probable trade can help us much, only to change the itinerary
Development is the only way the team can dig itself out of this shit