Update on where things stand on the In Season tournament for those who haven’t really kept up. This a detailed look at the Suns chances which are still very good. I will update this tomorrow as the 2 west games tonight impact the Suns chances greatly.

Our group has come down to Lakers (3-0), Utah (2-1), Phx (1-1) all 3 have a legitimate chance to win the group. Lakers control their own destiny as a win gives them the lock, but a loss sets up the chance for a 3 way tie that is decided by point differential. The Utah Lakers game will decide the path forward, but it all hinges on us taking care of buisness.

Utah And Lakers play each other tonight in each of their final IST games, the result does and doesn’t really matter as neither eliminate the suns but there are 2 different paths forward based on how that game goes. Below are the 2 scenarios of what happens based on that game (And assuming we win the next 2 vs Portland and Memphis). IMO SUNS WANT A 6pt UTAH WIN, since this keeps the shot at winning the group alive and sets the differential at ~26 (Lakers +24 / Utah +25) to win the group outright.

Scenario #1 - Utah Wins. I led with this since its what likely what we would want to happen. First fuck the Lakers. 2nd, this scenario Utah would take the Lead in the group over LA as both teams would be 3-1 and Utah would hold the head to head tiebreaker. Now assuming the Suns win both games they would also be 3-1 creating a 3 way tie and we would hold the tie breaker over Utah but not LA and Since this weird triangle forms that cancels each other out it goes to Total Point Differential tiebreaker. As of now the Suns have alot of ground to make up as we are at an Even 0 with 2 games to play. Utah is at +19 and Lakers are at +30. In this case Utah wins and LA Loses so Lakers would be Less than 30 and Utah would be great than 19. A 1 point win and the differential is Now Lakers +29, Utah +20, Suns +0 (With 2 games to play). This would mean the suns need to average a minimum of +15 a game a for the next 2 games, this will be reinforced later as well. Now lets Say Utah wins by 20. The Suns would then need to beat Utah’s +39 in order to win the group. In the case of a massive Utah win we would likely need to focus on the Wild Card slot (Which to be fair is the best odds for us anyhow. A big Utah win would also take LA out of it as they would be at a roughly +10 after a big loss. We would then be looking at the 2nd best teams from the other 2 groups Teams like Denver (2-1, +9) / pelicans (2-1, +23) or Minnesota (2-0, +10) / Kings (2-0, +16).

Scenario #2 - Lakers Win. This is a bit clearer than option 1 as it guarantees the Lakers win the group at 4-0. Assuming the Suns win both we would automatically finish 2nd in our group as Utah would finish 2-2. From there we would be looking at the same battle vs the 2nd best team in the other 2 groups. Weather its Denver / New Orleans, or Minnesota / Sacramento. This path is a bit deicer but still very possible to make it thru. This game really can go either way, Utah is better than their record shows and the Lakers are beatable but the game is in LA so id have to lean toward a Lakers win and this being the more likely scenario.

Opposing Groups games remaining and what we would want to happen:

West Group B: Threats Denver (2-1 +9) / New Orleans (2-1 + 23)

11/24 - Denver @ Houston (I expect Denver to Win, pushing them to 3-1, currently with a +9 which will increase based on how much they win by) Denver will be the #2 seed in their group if New Orleans wins. SUNS DONT CARE WHO WINS OR LOSES (Either Denver wins and wins the group, or loses and is 2-2 and not a factor for us)

11/24 - Pelicans @ Clippers (This game could go either way. Clippers been not great with Harden but that could change any given night. Id lean New Orleans here but it probably comes down to whose hot that given night.) In any case a New Orleans win Pushes them to 3-1 and wins them the group based on the head to head vs Denver. If Clippers win (Best case for the Suns) Pelicans would be eliminated at 2-2, Denver wins the group. SUNS WANT THE CLIPPERS TO WIN (This forces the pelicans to 2-2 and not a factor If Denver Loses this game doesn’t matter to us.

West Group C: Threats Kings (2-0 +16) / Minnesota (2-0 + 10) / Warriors (1-1 -1)

11/21 - Kings @ Minnesota - This is the Lakers vs Suns of this group. This will almost guaranteed determine who wins the group. Winner of this goes to a controlling 3-0 with 1 to play and the tiebreaker over the only other 2 win team in the group. (Warriors could win the group with a Kings win here and then the Kings losing to GSW on 11/28

11/24 - Spurs @ Warriors - Must win for the Warriors to say alive. GSW Can still get to 3-1 and threaten the Suns but they got a do have a tougher set of games with 1 vs Sacramento remaining.

11/28 - Thunder @ Minnesota - Ignoring the 11/21 game Minnesota and the Kings each have 1 other game to play and Minnesota has the far tougher matchup in my eyes. OKC is hungry to prove they belong and even tho they are out at 1-2 currently this is more a statement game for them. In Minnesota id have to lean towards Minnesota but it will be close. If Minnesota Loses to Kings on 11/21 this would be a do or die game for the wolves.

11/28 - Warriors @ Kings - Must win for the Warriors to stay alive but could also be for a shot to win the group but the odds of that are very unlikely, It would start with a kings win on 11/21 and a massive GSW win on 11/24, well revisit that next week. Also Depending what happens in the 11/21 game between SAC/Minn this could be a do or die game for Sacramento. Till the 11/21 game this group is tough to nail down.

Expectations as of 11/21/23:

This would mean we would come down to a differential tie breaker battle between Sacramento (Currently +16 with 2 games to play projecting 1 as a loss) and New Orleans (Currently +23 with 1 game to play projecting a win). Using New Orleans as the high end since they are aimed at being greater than +23 the Suns likely need to get to the +30ish range over the next 2 wins to get to Vegas (assuming we dont steal out group). Tonight vs Portland (The worst offense in the league and a bottom half defense) should be a good case to pad the differential stat and give us a good goal for the friday game vs Memphis.

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