Lots of QBs have had narratives of only having wide open targets to throw to and being turnover machines (no this piece totally has nothing to do with it, no reason to ask) but are they really accurate? To unfortunately steal a line from Buzzfeed, numbers one and two may shock you!
INT% is self-explanatory. It is the percentage of dropbacks in which the QB throws an INT on the box score. TWP stands for Turnover Worthy Play, a stat that measures plays where a QB SHOULD have thrown a pick but a defender dropped it, and discounts passes that are based on a lot of luck such as batted and tipped passes that get picked off as well as passes that go through receiver’s hands. Simply put, INTs are box score stats, TWPs are film stats.
Some of the differences are substantial here. Some are expected, and some can completely turn narratives. On the chart, a negative differential means a QB is unlucky and a positive differential means the QB is lucky.
Something to note is that some players might have some variance due to how many fumbles they have due to TWPs counting fumbles as well, but there are significantly more INTs + dropped INTs in general. Ranks would be moved a bit as a result but you’d still be able to figure out the general range of a QB. A player won’t go from 5 to 30 just because of fumbles.
| QB | INT% Rank | TWP Rank% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allen | 24 | 4 | -20 |
| Fields | 27 | 7 | -20 |
| Garropolo | 31 | 14 | -17 |
| Stafford | 18 | 3 | -15 |
| Z. Wilson | 23 | 10 | -13 |
| Love | 28 | 17 | -11 |
| Tagovailoa | 20 | 10 | -10 |
| Prescott | 13 | 5 | -8 |
| Burrow | 8 | 1 | -7 |
| Tannehill | 29 | 23 | -6 |
| Mayfield | 12 | 7 | -5 |
| Goff | 6 | 2 | -4 |
| Cousins | 9 | 5 | -4 |
| D. Jones | 30 | 26 | -4 |
| Pickett | 15 | 13 | -2 |
| Howell | 22 | 20 | -2 |
| Hurts | 26 | 24 | -2 |
| Young | 16 | 17 | 1 |
| Mahomes | 17 | 19 | 2 |
| Carr | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| R. Wilson | 10 | 15 | 5 |
| M. Jones | 25 | 30 | 5 |
| Stroud | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Ridder | 21 | 29 | 8 |
| Herbert | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| Jackson | 4 | 15 | 11 |
| Minshew | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| Smith | 14 | 27 | 13 |
| Lawrence | 2 | 21 | 19 |
| Dobbs | 3 | 25 | 23 |
| Purdy | 5 | 28 | 23 |
My general takeaways would be that the turnover machine Josh Allen ain’t much of one anymore based on film as opposed to the box score. Fields strikes me as more of a “can’t throw a pick if your misses are so bad they’re away from everyone” type (I’ll admit as a Bills fan I have no real desire to watch a ton of Bears film so I could be wrong here), but better incomplete passes than interceptions. The Jones duo ain’t doing so hot with both of them being low on both rankings. Goff and Cousins are very impressive with both categories by high with not much difference. Burrow being as middling as he is this year is more due to him not having as many high end plays as opposed to him messing up that badly. And uh…I promise this wasn’t another Purdy is overrated post. Can’t say I’m stunned by the result though.