As some of you may know, every night, I’ve been recapping the performances of rookies with significant playing time every night. In doing so, I have collected a pretty good amount of data in regard to how these rookies have been playing so far this season. Below, I have compiled some of the data that may or may not mean anything to you. Remember that the data doesn’t really show how good a rookie has been, unless that data shows that the rookie on your team is good. Then it’s perfectly fine.
Naturally, the most apparent metric to show if you’ve been following the daily posts is the number of crowns and the number of snowflakes each player has been awarded. If you haven’t been following, the crown is given to whoever had the best performance that night, and the snowflake is “awarded” to the player who had the worst. These performances are always sorted by Game Score, an advanced stat that puts one number on an entire performance. Here is the definition of game score, ripped straight off of Basketball Reference:
The formula is PTS + 0.4 * FG - 0.7 * FGA - 0.4*(FTA - FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK - 0.4 * PF - TOV. Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.).
With that said, here is a table of rookies sorted by number of crowns:
| # 👑 | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) |
| 4 | Chet Holmgren (OKC) |
| 3 | Dereck Lively II (DAL) |
| 2 | Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) |
| 2 | Craig Porter Jr (CLE) |
| 2 | Jaime Jaquez Jr (MIA) |
| 2 | Ausar Thompson (DET) |
| 1 | Brandin Podziemski (GSW) |
| 1 | Marcus Sasser (DET) |
| 1 | Jordan Hawkins (NOP) |
| 1 | Anthony Black (ORL) |
| 1 | Brandon Miller (CHO) |
And here is the table for the number of snowflakes:
| # ❄️ | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 3 | Gradey Dick (TOR) |
| 3 | Andre Jackson Jr (MIL) |
| 2 | Scoot Henderson (POR) |
| 2 | Dereck Lively II (DAL) |
| 2 | Sasha Vezenkov (SAC) |
| 2 | Duop Reath (POR) |
| 1 | Cam Whitmore (HOU) |
| 1 | Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) |
| 1 | Craig Porter Jr (CLE) |
| 1 | Toumani Camara (POR) |
| 1 | Colby Jones (SAC) |
| 1 | Brandon Miller (CHO) |
| 1 | D’Moi Hodge (LAL) |
| 1 | Colin Gillespie (DEN) |
| 1 | Anthony Black (ORL) |
| 1 | Cason Wallace (OKC) |
| 1 | Vasilije Micic (OKC) |
| 1 | Jaime Jaquez Jr (MIA) |
| 1 | Julian Strawther (DEN) |
While this data is somewhat interesting to look at, it doesn’t really mean a whole lot. Generally, the better rookies will have more crowns and the worse ones will have more snowflakes, but if a player has a great performance that gets one-upped by another player the same night, they get no credit for that here.
Another issue with this is that it doesn’t take into account the number of rookies who actually played that day. Getting a crown on a full slate where 17 rookies played is a lot more impressive than getting one on a day with four games and four rookies played.
To counteract these issues, I’ve ranked every rookie in a new stat that I created called Ahead Minus Behind (AMB). This stat takes a rookie’s performance and adds 1 for every rookie the first rookie outperformed that night and subtracts 1 for every rookie that outperformed them (all by Game Score).
Here is the table for AMB with the highest at the top:
| Rank | Pick: Rookie (Team) | Ahead Minus Behind (AMB) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2022 Pick 2: Chet Holmgren (OKC) | 120 |
| 2 | Pick 5: Ausar Thompson (DET) | 84 |
| 3 | Pick 1: Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 73 |
| 4 | Pick 2: Brandon Miller (CHO) | 50 |
| 5 | Pick 12: Dereck Lively II (DAL) | 46 |
| 6 | Undrafted: Craig Porter Jr (CLE) | 23 |
| 7 | Pick 14: Jordan Hawkins (NOP) | 21 |
| 8 | Pick 18: Jaime Jaquez Jr (MIA) | 18 |
| 9 | Pick 25: Marcus Sasser (DET) | 14 |
| 10 | Pick 10: Cason Wallace (OKC) | 9 |
| 11 | Pick 8: Jarace Walker (IND) | 8 |
| 12 | Pick 23: Kris Murray (POR) | 7 |
| T-13 | Pick 19: Brandin Podziemski (GSW) | 1 |
| T-13 | Pick 32: Jalen Pickett (DEN) | 1 |
| T-15 | Pick 16: Keyonte George (UTA) | -1 |
| T-15 | Pick 49: Emoni Bates (CLE) | -1 |
| 17 | Pick 54: Jalen Slawson (SAC) | -3 |
| T-18 | Pick 57: Trayce Jackson-Davis (GSW) | -5 |
| T-18 | Pick 34: Colby Jones (SAC) | -5 |
| T-18 | Pick 26: Ben Sheppard (IND) | -5 |
| T-18 | Pick 30: Kobe Brown (LAC) | -5 |
| T-22 | Pick 27: Nick Smith Jr (CHO) | -7 |
| T-22 | Undrafted: Jermaine Samuels (HOU) | -7 |
| 24 | Pick 7: Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) | -9 |
| T-25 | Pick 43: Rayan Rupert (POR) | -11 |
| T-25 | Undrafted: Colin Castleton (LAL) | -11 |
| 27 | Pick 29: Julian Strawther (DEN) | -12 |
| 28 | Undrafted: D’Moi Hodge (LAL) | -13 |
| T-29 | 2014 Pick 52: Vasilije Micic (OKC) | -16 |
| T-29 | Pick 36: Andre Jackson Jr (MIL) | -16 |
| 31 | Pick 20: Cam Whitmore (HOU) | -19 |
| 32 | Pick 3: Scoot Henderson (POR) | -21 |
| 33 | Pick 4: Amen Thompson (HOU) | -29 |
| 34 | Undrafted: Collin Gillespie (DEN) | -31 |
| 35 | 2017 Pick 57: Sasha Vezenkov (SAC) | -35 |
| 36 | Pick 6: Anthony Black (ORL) | -42 |
| 37 | Undrafted: Duop Reath (POR) | -43 |
| 38 | Pick 13: Gradey Dick (TOR) | -46 |
| 39 | Pick 52: Toumani Camara (POR) | -49 |
Now, one problem with this is that it doesn’t take playing time into account. For instance, Jarace Walker is pretty high on this table, but his sample space is only 2 games in where he played 10+ minutes.
Here is a chart with the x-axis showing minutes played and the y-axis showing AMB:
And for fun, here is the same chart but the x-axis is draft pick:
Using this trendline, we can come up with the so called “steals of the draft” based on how far above the line they are.
If we avoid looking at the first 5 draft picks the biggest “steals” are Craig Porter Jr, Dereck Lively II, and Jaime Jaquez Jr in that order.
We can do the same for the “biggest busts” one month into these players’ careers.
Avoiding the second round, we can determine that the biggest “busts” so far have been Gradey Dick, Anthony Black, and Bilal Coulibaly in that order. Technically Amen Thompson and Scoot Henderson are farther below the line than Coulibaly, however, early injuries to both have made their rankings impossible to actually use in this way.
I’ve also been keeping track of the leaders of each stat every day. In the daily posts, I’ve been italicizing the number of each stat that was the highest.
Here are all of the rookies that led the night in scoring more than once:
| Times Led (Points) | Player |
|---|---|
| 5 | Chet Holmgren |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama |
| 3 | Jordan Hawkins |
| 2 | Craig Porter Jr |
| 2 | Jaime Jaquez Jr |
| 2 | Dereck Lively II |
| 2 | Marcus Sasser |
Here is the same for rebounds:
| Times Led (Rebounds) | Player |
|---|---|
| 8 | Ausar Thompson |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama |
| 4 | Chet Holmgren |
| 4 | Dereck Lively II |
Here is the same for assists:
| Times Led (Assists) | Player |
|---|---|
| 8 | Keyonte George |
| 4 | Scoot Henderson |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama |
| 3 | Ausar Thompson |
| 2 | Craig Porter Jr |
| 2 | Jaime Jaquez Jr |
| 2 | Chet Holmgren |
| 2 | Vasilije Micic |
| 2 | Marcus Sasser |
For steals and blocks, the numbers start to get ugly because there have been many days when four or five players led with just 1 or 2 steals/blocks. Because of this, I feel like the data isn’t very useful and potentially misleading, so I’m deciding against showing that here.
Now for individual performances. Below are a few tables that go over the best performances by a rookie this season so far in each stat.
Top 10 Performances by Game Score
| Game Score | Player (Date) | Statline |
|---|---|---|
| 32.5 | Chet Holmgren (11/18) | 36/10/5 (4 OREB), 2 STL, 1 BLK, 4 TOV, 2 PF, 14/22 FG, 2/5 3P, 6/7 FT, 37 minutes |
| 29.8 | Victor Wembanyama (11/02) | 38/10/2, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 2 TOV, 3 PF, 15/26 FG, 3/6 3P, 5/6 FT, 34 minutes |
| 25.7 | Chet Holmgren (11/03) | 24/8/5 (3 OREB), 1 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TOV, 4 PF, 7/9 FG, 2/2 3P, 8/8 FT, 32 minutes |
| 25.1 | Jordan Hawkins (11/06) | 31/7/3, 1 STL, 1 TOV, 2 PF, 10/19 FG, 7/14 3P, 4/5 FT, 38 minutes |
| 23.0 | Victor Wembanyama (11/10) | 29/9/4, 1 STL, 4 BLK, 3 TOV, 5 PF, 12/21 FG, 3/7 3P, 2/4 FT, 35 minutes |
| 22.5 | Ausar Thompson (11/14) | 21/7/5, 3 STL, 2 BLK, 2 TOV, 3 PF, 9/12 FG, 0/1 3P, 3/6 FT, 35 minutes |
| 22.1 | Craig Porter Jr (11/19) | 21/4/4, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TOV, 3 PF, 7/10 FG, 7/7 FT, 25 minutes |
| 21.6 | Brandon Miller (11/18) | 29/3/2, 2 TOV, 3 PF, 10/15 FG, 5/7 3P, 4/4 FT, 34 minutes |
| 21.0 | Bilal Coulibaly (11/12) | 20/7/3, 4 STL, 2 TOV, 8/12 FG, 4/7 3P, 0/1 FT, 34 minutes |
| 20.7 | Chet Holmgren (10/27) | 16/13/2, 1 STL, 7 BLK, 1 TOV, 3 PF, 5/9 FG, 3/4 3P, 3/4 FT, 31 minutes |
Here is the top ten for points:
| Points | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/02 |
| 36 | Chet Holmgren | 11/18 |
| 31 | Jordan Hawkins | 11/06 |
| 29 | Brandon Miller | 11/18 |
| 29 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/10 |
| 27 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/17 |
| 26 | Marcus Sasser | 11/08 |
| 25 | Jordan Hawkins | 11/14 |
| 24 | Chet Holmgren | 11/3 |
| 23 | Brandin Podziemski | 11/14 |
For rebounds (Top 9, 3-way tie for 10th):
| Rebounds | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ausar Thompson | 11/12 |
| 15 | Ausar Thompson | 11/08 |
| 14 | Dereck Lively II | 11/05 |
| 14 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/14 |
| 13 | Chet Holmgren | 10/27 |
| 13 | Dereck Lively II | 11/1 |
| 13 | Ausar Thompson | 10/27 |
| 13 | Ausar Thompson | 11/10 |
| 13 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/18 |
For assists (Top 9, 7-way tie for 10th):
| Assists | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Keyonte George | 11/10 |
| 11 | Keyonte George | 11/19 |
| 9 | Keyonte George | 11/08 |
| 9 | Craig Porter Jr | 11/21 |
| 7 | Keyonte George | 11/14 |
| 7 | Scoot Henderson | 10/30 |
| 7 | Scoot Henderson | 11/01 |
| 7 | Vasilije Micic | 11/16 |
| 7 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/12 |
For steals (Top 11):
| Steals | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bilal Coulibaly | 11/12 |
| 4 | Marcus Sasser | 11/01 |
| 4 | Ausar Thompson | 11/05 |
| 4 | Ausar Thompson | 11/06 |
| 4 | Cason Wallace | 11/06 |
| 3 | Toumani Camara | 11/08 |
| 3 | Bilal Coulibaly | 11/01 |
| 3 | Bilal Coulibaly | 11/13 |
| 3 | Jaime Jaquez Jr | 11/12 |
| 3 | Ausar Thompson | 11/14 |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama | 10/27 |
For blocks (Top 9, 6-way tie for 10th):
| Blocks | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/18 |
| 7 | Chet Holmgren | 10/27 |
| 5 | Ausar Thompson | 10/25 |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/05 |
| 4 | Chet Holmgren | 10/30 |
| 4 | Trayce Jackson-Davis | 10/30 |
| 4 | Ausar Thompson | 11/05 |
| 4 | Victor Wembanyama | 10/31 |
| 4 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/10 |
For turnovers:
| Turnovers | Player | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/12 |
| 5 | Keyonte George | 11/19 |
| 5 | Scoot Henderson | 10/27 |
| 5 | Chet Holmgren | 11/01 |
| 5 | Ausar Thompson | 11/17 |
| 5 | Ausar Thompson | 11/19 |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama | 10/25 |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama | 10/29 |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama | 10/31 |
| 5 | Victor Wembanyama | 11/14 |
And just for fun, the 5 worst performances by Game Score (at least 10 minutes):
| Game Score | Player (Date) | Statline |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Gradey Dick (11/17) | 0/1/1, 2 TOV, 0/5 FG, 0/4 3P, 10 minutes |
| -4.5 | Duop Reath (11/14) | 0/1/0, 2 TOV, 1 PF, 0/4 FG, 0/3 3P, 10 minutes |
| -3.5 | Cam Whitmore (10/25) | 0/1/0, 1 TOV, 0/4 FG, 0/2 3P, 10 minutes |
| -3.1 | Scoot Henderson (10/27) | 7/3/2, 1 STL, 5 TOV, 5 PF, 3/12 FG, 1/5 3P, 25 minutes |
| -3.0 | Scoot Henderson (10/29) | 4/1/3, 1 BLK, 4 TOV, 5 PF, 2/7 FG, 0/4 3P, 27 minutes |
If you would like to know any more stats about this year’s rookie class so far, please let me know. I’m more than happy to add a few more tables here if they are interesting enough.
I still can’t believe Ausar is out-rebounding 7 and a half foot giants.