From the Vikings Week 12 Rooting Guide:
- The Vikings make the playoffs in 64.9% of simulated seasons
- Win the division: 10.1%
- Earn a top 2 seed: 3.1%
- Earn the top seed: 0.07%
- Betting odds for the Vikings to make the playoffs stayed close to the same after last week’s loss. The Seahawks loss helped, and the injury to Burrow makes the upcoming schedule look easier.
Here’s how this week’s games impact the Vikings’ chances:
Game | Total | Playoffs | Division | Top 2 | Top Seed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vikings over Bears | 56.1% | 29.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
49ers over Seahawks | 12.7 | 5.0 | 0.003 | (-1.7) | (-0.02) |
Colts over Buccaneers | 7.9 | 4.2 | 0.002 | 0.07 | |
Commanders over Cowboys | 7.2 | (-0.6) | (-.008) | 0.02 | |
Cardinals over Rams | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.003 | 0.008 | |
Falcons over Saints | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.003 | 0.3 | 0.0006 |
Packers over Lions | (-0.3) | (-5.5) | 9.1 | 1.7 | 0.02 |
Bills over Eagles | 0.08 | (-0.0004) | 0.04 | 0.09 | |
Patriots over Giants | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.002 | 0.0005 | |
Raiders over Chiefs | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.005 | 0.001 | |
Ravens over Chargers | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.003 | 0.0005 | |
Bengals over Steelers | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.002 | 0.0003 | |
Panthers over Titans | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.002 | 0.0005 | |
Jaguars over Texans | 0.003 | 0.0004 | |||
Jets over Dolphins | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | |||
Browns v Broncos |
Values show the impact that the given outcome has on the Vikings’ playoff probabilities.
Total: The total of all seeding improvements for the Vikings.
Playoffs: The Vikings make the playoffs.
Division: The Vikings win the division.
Top 2: The Vikings secure a top 2 seed.
Top Seed: The Vikings secure the top seed in the NFC.
- A Vikings win raises the probability of making the playoffs to 76.3%, a loss reduces it to 47.4%.
- A Vikings win raises the probability of winning the North to 13.4%, a loss reduces it to 5.1%.
- The Lions-Packers game is split between wanting the Lions to lose for the division race, and wanting the Packers to lose for the Wildcard race. A Packers loss helps in 9.7% of simulated seasons, a Lions loss helps in 9.4%. I’ll root for a Lions loss in this one.
- Cowboys over Commanders helps the Vikings make the playoffs, though a Cowboys loss is more likely to help for playoff seeding.
- 49ers Seahawks also could go either way, but a Seahawks loss is much more likely to end up helping the Vikings (17% v 4.3%).
- Panthers, Bengals, and Raiders wins help the Vikings’ strength of schedule tiebreaks.
- Ravens over Chargers surprisingly is good for the Vikings, I’m not sure why this is the case and will have to look into it.
- A Texans loss could help strength of schedule tiebreaks against the NFC South teams.
- Friday’s game is unlikely to matter, but in four out of two million simulated seasons a Jets win helped the Vikings secure the 2 seed.
- Browns vs Broncos had no impact on the Vikings in any simulated season.
The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines and evaluates how often the changing the result of a particular game changes the Vikings’ playoff seeding.
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