Imagine in this hypothetical that Lebron doesn’t exist and by 2014 KD is a young GOAT. In this scenario, Melo goes to Miami instead of Lebron, do you think they win any titles? I was talking to a friend about this and I think they would be lucky to get one in 2011 but it would be tough for them to even beat the bulls. After that I think they don’t get out of the East and even if they do, the Thunder and Spurs would beat them.
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I think you get more out of Wade in 2011-13 but obviously less out of Melo. I think their sheer talent still wins one ring. They get more rings if Melo stays past 2014 and Bosh doesn’t get heart clots. Bosh really unlocked himself once Wade declined.