Texans Notable Injuries

Sheldon Rankins (Starting DT), Robert Woods (starting WR), Derek Stingley (starting CB), Juice Scruggs (starting Center)

Panthers Notable Injuries

Brian Burns (starting and star edge rusher), Vonn Bell (starting Free Safety), Jeremy Chinn (starting Strong safety), Jaycee Horn (starting CB).

For the Panthers Vonn Bell, Chinn, and Horn are already ruled out Burns is questionable but did not practice all week.

Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense

Right now this looks like a case of strength vs weakness. The Texans have been a solid offense all year as the Texans offense is 13th in EPA/play and 14th in points per game. The Panthers defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 23rd in points per game.

The Texans on offense are about as healthy as they have been all year but the loss of Robert Woods this week is more significant than the name may indicate. He has been a fairly reliable target for Stroud all year, especially on 3rd down. However hopefully this type of production can be offset by the emergence of TE Dalton Schultz these past few games after a slow start to the year. Schultz has proven to be an effective red zone threat and has hit a few big plays over the middle of the field recently. As for the WR’s without Woods likely the primary targets will be Nico Collins and Tank Dell who is back from a concussion. It will be Dell’s birthday on Sunday, the Panthers secondary not played well, and I can’t imagine losing their 2nd starting safety will improve their play much so look for him to make some noise.

That being said I see Nico Collins as the big x factor on offense here. The Panthers have been torched over the middle of the field this year. The Panthers linebackers are coverage liabilities, Texans fans know all too well about starting Panthers linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and his coverage skills and with both starting Panthers safeties out I don’t anticipate much from them. Nico Collins has been a terror over the middle and I have to expect that will continue this week. As for pass rush the Panthers do have a decent pass rush IMO. Houston still has some juice and if Burns plays he is a great rusher. However the Texans oline has been money in pass pro this year so outside of blitzing I don’t anticipate too much pressure on Stroud. One thing to watch is the Panthers do have Frankie Luvu who has been excellent as a pass rushing MLB thus far this season. If Texans fans recall week 1 we faced Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen who were used very effectively as pass rushers. We will see if the Panthers can pull off something similar this week.

As for the run game this is a battle of two struggling units. The Texans rank towards the bottom of the league in rush EPA and success rate while the Panthers defense is last in both metrics. The Texans run game has shown some mild signs of life the past couple games against much better defenses than the Panthers so I believe this is a game where the Texans will try to get the run game going and based off of past performance the odds are in the Texans favor there.

Texans Defense vs Panthers Offense

Starting off with the stats the Texans defense is 18th in EPA/play and 8th in points allowed. While the Panthers offense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 23rd in points per game. I think these stats are a bit skewed however. The Texans defense hasn’t allowed many points but it’s been very bend but don’t break, especially recently. We have relied on 4th down stops in the red zone, missed field goals, and some lucky fumbles to bail us out a bit. Conversely the Panthers offense has scored a decent amount of their points in garbage time. Basically I think both points per game rankings are inflated a bit. One other thing to note is that the Panthers just switched play callers and that could provide some juice this week.

Anyways down to the nitty gritty starting with the run game. A month ago any Texans fan would have told you our biggest weakness was the run defense whereas pass defense was decent. Over the past couple weeks that script has flipped. The Texans have been very solid on the ground but have been gashed in the air. On the other side of the ball the Panthers actually have a middling run offense. The Texans losing starting DT Sheldon Rankins could cause some issues to return in the run defense but I believe this will be offset by the underrated return of Hassan Ridgeway who will likely start at DT for us this week. With RB Miles Sanders returning for the Panthers I expect the Texans to focus on stopping the run early and see if Young is able to beat them in the air.

Speaking of Young and the passing game after a terrible start the Panthers have shown some life on that front recently. Bryce Young is playing better recently and Adam Thielen seems to have remembered how to play football. The passing game last week was a big factor in the Panthers jumping on top of the Dolphins 14-0 but ultimately they cooled down shortly after and struggled much of the rest of the game. The issues with the Panthers passing offense are varied. They lack really any juice in their receiving targets outside of Thielen, their oline pass protection is not good enough, and Bryce looks like a rookie at times (which is to be expected). However remember that they are subbing in a new playcaller this week and maybe he can inject something into this offense. On the Texans side the pass defense has struggled recently but the secondary will be boosted by the return of Tavierre Thomas, one of the most underrated slot corners in the league. His matchup with Thielen will be a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Final note here is the Panthers oline. The Panthers frankly have struggled on the oline all year. The Texans have gotten plenty of pressure this year (outside of the Falcons game) but have failed to turn those pressures into sacks. Whether or not the Panthers oline can tighten up will be a huge factor as well in how this game turns out.

How the Panthers win

On offense the Panthers win by figuring out the run game and exploiting the middle of the Texans pass defense. This Texans defense has holes and I think some of the Panthers strengths match up well with those holes. Also as I’ve mentioned the new Carolina playcaller is an x factor. He has never called plays before in the NFL so there’s a chance he can catch this Texans defense off guard.

On defense the Panthers win by pressuring Stroud and figuring out their run defense. Can’t win if you can’t stop the run so that’s gotta be priority #1 for the Panthers here. As for Stroud for all of his success so far he has still been a bit shaky under pressure. If the Panthers can force us to pass and get consistent pressure it could be a long day.

How the Texans win

This will look very similar to the Panthers but the Texans offense wins by exploiting the weak middle of the Panthers defense with Nico Collins and by exploiting the atrocious Panthers run defense.

On defense the Texans win if they can take away Thielen. The Panthers run game is meh but I don’t believe it has the ability to take over a game. Thielen has pretty much been shown to be the only weapon in Carolina right now. If you can stop him I don’t think they can score many points.

Summary

Ultimately this is a big game for both teams for different reasons. The Texans probably realize they are in the middle of a playoff hunt and winning games like this is imperative to staying in the hunt. The Panthers have a lot of reasons to fight hard in this game even if playoffs are probably already out of the question. I’m sure they’re sick of being winless, I know Bryce wants to start showing the Panthers why they picked him over Stroud, and who knows some of their coaches may feel like they are coaching for their jobs if this doesn’t get turned around. I anticipate a hard fought game here even if on paper the Texans look a lot better.