The first few tiebreaking procedures for two clubs in the same division are:

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

  5. Strength of victory in all games.

If we beat the Seahawks today, we would at worse tie them on 1, 2, and 3. They could possibly beat us on 4.

For 1, if we win today, the best the Seahawks could do is split it at 1-1 by beating us 2 weeks later.

For 2, our division record would be 3-0 and theirs would be 1-3! So at worse, we’d end up with a division record of 3-3 and they’d also end up 3-3.

For 3, it’s easiest to think about this tiebreaker by flipping it around and looking at the 3 non-common games. If 2 teams have the same overall record, the team with the better record among common opponents will be the team with the worse record against non-common opponents.

The non-common opponents are those from the AFC South, NFC North, and NFC South. That’s the Jaguars, Vikings, and Buccaneers for us, and the Titans, Lions, and Panthers for the Seahawks. We’re 2-1 in these games and they’re 2-0 in these games. They would end up with a better non-common opponent record unless they lose to the Titans. So they would need to lose to the (now 3-7) Titans for them to not lose this tiebreaker against us.

For 4, you can also flip it around much like with step 3, this time by looking at non-conference games. If 2 teams are tied, the team with the better record among conference opponents will be the team with the worse record against non-conference opponents.

We’re 2-2 against the AFC while the Seahawks are 1-2 against the AFC. Since the Seahawks need to lose to the Titans to not lose tiebreaker 3, they’d end up either 2-3 or 1-4 against the AFC if this tiebreaker becomes relevant, depending on whether they beat the Steelers. We would be 2-3 or 3-2 depending on our game against the Ravens.

The Seahawks would win this tiebreaker if we end up tied, unless we both end up with a 2-3 record against the AFC. This would require us to lose to the Ravens, and them to beat the Steelers.

For 5, it’s nearly impossible to calculate scenarios for strength of victory (i.e., win percentage of teams you beat). According to ESPN, we currently lead in SOV .458 vs Seattle’s .397.

To put this together, if we win today, we’d win a one-on-one tiebreaker against them unless all of the following happen:

  • 49ers lose to the Seahawks again.

  • 49ers lose the the Cardinals.

  • 49ers lose to the Rams.

  • Seahawks beat the Cardinals.

  • Seahawks lose to the Titans.

  • Either the 49ers don’t lose to the Ravens, Seahawks don’t beat the Steelers, or the Seahawks win the Strength of victory tiebreaker.

  • The results of the other games are such to make the 49ers and Seahawks tied.

Of course, none of this would matter if we’d just win every game from now on, which would be my favorite scenario.