Typically in 12 person half PPR leagues, a successful first round pick will net you a positional advantage of about 6 points per game (on average). So the value this player delivers vs. the last starter (RB36 or WR36) should be about 6 points per game.
Every year the RB36 or WR36 in half PPR points per game average around 9-10 points per game. This year is no different, RB36 is about 9.1 points per game, WR36 is about 9.8 points per game.
So a successful first pick should get you about 15-16 points a game, which is what guys like Saquon Barkley and Jamar Chase are getting you.
CMC is averaging 22.6 points a game which is a whopping 12 points of positional value and 6 points more than what the “expectation is. Tyreek is averaging 21.5 points per game similarly.
P.S. - No shares in either of these guys.
To be fair, drafting Chase at 2 gave a lot of flexibility with the next 2 choices while cmc locked you into a hero rb strategy most of the time.
Obv hind sight is 20|20 and I wish I had taken cmc there