Kicker performance more than any other position regresses to the mean.
Since 2019 there have been ZERO kickers who played a full or close to full slate of games and averaged 12 points a season or more. The closest was a Young Hoe who averaged 11.8 in 2019 but even he only played half the season.
It seems like with kickers, the strategy is more to avoid the objectively bad kickers and then get comfortable with sticking with one of the top 15 options despite week to week volatility.
I think Fantasy football has significantly more luck than poker but no where close to 99%.
I’d say poker is 40% luck and 60% skill and FF is probably more like 60% luck and 40% skill
In poker you can have a series of fairly bad hands but outplay the opponent based on figuring out what they might have and then getting them to fold by faking a better hand.
In FF, it’s tough to recover if you have a couple of major injuries to your star players.