We as a fan base seem to have a long history of begging our QBs and OCs to use the middle of the field. Yet 2 QBs, and 3 OCs later despite WR talent out the wazoo we seem incapable of utilizing a third of the field.
We know a few things for aure about Pete. One of them is that he values ball control above almost everything else, sure this seems obvious if you fumble or throw interceptions you are more likely to lose ball games. However, have to considered that this mentality could be getting in the way of our offense?
Consider this, anedottally speaking (sorry it was hard to find / access this data from pre 2018), we have seen Russ and now Geno, and Russ again this season with the Broncos have success over the middle immediately following every new play caller. By mid season though those plays begin to dry up and the passing game tends to move to the outside. If you look at this year and last Geno had a series of games both season with interceptions that was then followed by play calling that reflects what we are seeing now.
Check out this data: https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/where-s-the-best-spot-on-the-field-to-complete-passes-and-not-get-picked-off/
It visualizes interception and completion rate for all QBs by target location on the field. The cliff notes are that passes over the middle are 4x more likely to be intercepted when compared to passes of the same completion percentage on either side of the field. It also indicates a very high ypc and success rate over the middle, but with risk.
Lets just think about things from Petes perspective now, as a ball control coach if you feel that you are suddenly losing games because of interceptions it stands to reason that taking away the middle of the field will help immensely. The problem is that it also takes away the offense, and ties the OCs hands.
If you want to really put your tin foil hat on we can all ponder how much of an affect the SB loss had on Petes willingness to throw the ball over the middle.
This is the first reasoned explanation for what role Pete might play in the struggling offensive playcalling I’ve seen. Bravo. I can definitely see a world in which outside-the-numbers plays are emphasized in a bid to eliminate turnovers, only to end up making your offense so flat and one-dimensional that opposing Ds either know what’s coming and can put themselves into a position to force a turnover, or just de-emphasize the parts of the field you’re ceding to them. Just completely throwing the baby out with the bathwater.