I really cannot find any data whatsoever that suggests EV demand is slowing down
This horse has been beaten to the bone. YoY growth is still positive, but it is rapidly dropping off as 2022 had 65% YoY growth and 2021 had 89%. That’s not what you want to see when EV’s are only holding a single digit market share and just barely broke 1 million vehicles sold.
Combined with the fact that they are piling up at dealers, it tells you that supply has totally outpaced demand. We can’t hit 100% EV sales by 203X if it’s only growing 50% YoY at 7% market share with a downwards growth trend. Meanwhile, Toyota is hitting record profits partly with increased Hybrid sales (https://www.carscoops.com/2023/11/toyota-sales-profits-and-production-hit-record-levels/).
All this really means is that things are slow for whatever reason, and you probably shouldn’t pay a markup for an EV. The manufacturers are postponing production expansion until it makes sense.
Yet I’m here arguing the same thing for the Nth time.
It is absolutely expected for the growth to slow down over time, that is true for any new products past the very early adopter phase.
And even discard math, we are just now normalizing from the crazy 2021-2022 market into a more normal market with much higher interest rate. The overall EV growth still far out paces overall market growth, and outpaces hybrid growth.
Meanwhile, Toyota is hitting record profits partly with increased Hybrid sales
From your article, Toyota’s hybrids sale increased by 27%, which is far less than the market growth for EVs. And btw a lot of their increased profit was from them reporting lower cost due to Yen’s value crashing over the past year.
It didn’t seem like any manufacturers really anticipated it to slow down. I expected EV’s to rocket to maybe 20% market share before slowing, but that’s also why I question if this is a real downturn or just a temporary dip.
As for Hybrids, I think it’s notable because of how many get sold. Crunching the math in the article, Toyota alone sold about 1.5 Million hybrids, but that shouldn’t be a big surprise. I think the real takeaway here is that manufacturers should be making some hybrids rather than allocating so many batteries to half-baked or overpriced EVs. Making an EV just to say you have an EV is probably not worth it at this point.
This horse has been beaten to the bone. YoY growth is still positive, but it is rapidly dropping off as 2022 had 65% YoY growth and 2021 had 89%. That’s not what you want to see when EV’s are only holding a single digit market share and just barely broke 1 million vehicles sold.
Combined with the fact that they are piling up at dealers, it tells you that supply has totally outpaced demand. We can’t hit 100% EV sales by 203X if it’s only growing 50% YoY at 7% market share with a downwards growth trend. Meanwhile, Toyota is hitting record profits partly with increased Hybrid sales (https://www.carscoops.com/2023/11/toyota-sales-profits-and-production-hit-record-levels/).
All this really means is that things are slow for whatever reason, and you probably shouldn’t pay a markup for an EV. The manufacturers are postponing production expansion until it makes sense.
Yet I’m here arguing the same thing for the Nth time.
It is absolutely expected for the growth to slow down over time, that is true for any new products past the very early adopter phase.
And even discard math, we are just now normalizing from the crazy 2021-2022 market into a more normal market with much higher interest rate. The overall EV growth still far out paces overall market growth, and outpaces hybrid growth.
From your article, Toyota’s hybrids sale increased by 27%, which is far less than the market growth for EVs. And btw a lot of their increased profit was from them reporting lower cost due to Yen’s value crashing over the past year.
It didn’t seem like any manufacturers really anticipated it to slow down. I expected EV’s to rocket to maybe 20% market share before slowing, but that’s also why I question if this is a real downturn or just a temporary dip.
As for Hybrids, I think it’s notable because of how many get sold. Crunching the math in the article, Toyota alone sold about 1.5 Million hybrids, but that shouldn’t be a big surprise. I think the real takeaway here is that manufacturers should be making some hybrids rather than allocating so many batteries to half-baked or overpriced EVs. Making an EV just to say you have an EV is probably not worth it at this point.