Because of how complicated tiebreakers can get I whipped out a playoff machine and started throwing together some scenarios, and here’s what I got.

Disclaimers:

I only focused on PHI, SF, DAL, DET. Really no point looking at other teams

I generously assumed we get 3 wins vs. NYG, ARI, NYG to end the season, i fully understand some statements are false without this

##Findings:

1. This upcoming game vs. SF is even bigger than I expected. Win this game & if Detroit loses any remaining game then the division AND the #1 seed is completely locked up. We could lose at Dallas, lose again at Seattle, it wouldn’t matter (the Lions loss to GB was huge for this).

2. Win ANY of the next 3 games and we win the division. Obviously beating Dallas week 14 would lock it up, but i was surprised to learn that even losing to DAL and SF wouldnt matter with a win @ Seattle. We apparently have the tiebreaker with Dallas already locked up if we both finish 14-3 no matter what.

3. Piggybacking on the #2 scenario where we lose to SF & Dallas, win @ Seattle; we still end up with the #1 seed if SF or DET lose any game the remainder of the season. There are two big matchups to watch for if this scenario happens; BAL @ SF week 16, and DET @ DAL week 17… so ironically its possible that with a win the Cowboys are the ones to win us the #1 seed. In fact, there are no scenarios in which Dallas beating Detroit doesn’t help us apart from us finishing 3-3 and Dallas finishing 6-0.

4. Plenty of scenarios where Washington could become our best friends by playing late season spoiler with home games vs. SF and DAL in the final 2 weeks.