Good evening everyone, I hope we’re all excited for tomorrow’s matchup against Atlanta! Unfortunately, the odds of the Cavs moving on are pretty slim, and they’ll probably have to blow out the Hawks to even have a chance. Here’s a look at the current standings in the East:

​

Team Group Point Differential Point Diffential vs Cavs
IND (4-0) A Winner Group A Winner Group A
MIL (3-0) B +39 +33
ORL (3-1) C +22 +16
NYK (2-1) B +18 +12
MIA (2-1) B +11 +5
BKN (2-1) C +8 +2
CLE (2-1) A +6 0
BOS (2-1) C 0 -6

So you can see that the Cavs are clearly at a disadvantage here. It would’ve been nice to get some better PD out of the Detroit game. Regardless, all 5 of tomorrow’s Eastern Conference In-Season Tournament games will impact their odds, so I’ve decided to rank all 32 potential outcomes on how they affect the Cavs!

First, here are the games:

​

ATL @ CLE MIL @ MIA CHA @ NYK TOR @ BKN CHI @ BOS

The tiebreakers first determine seeding in the group before determining the wildcard. First is head to head record (only in the group) then point differential, then total points scored, then season record. Cavs currently have a modest total points scored advantage over every team in contention except for Milwaukee (-25) and Orlando who has played all of their games (-100, meaning Cavs need to score 101 vs Hawks to own tiebreaker.) With that out of the way, let’s get in to the first 16 outcomes!

Tier 0

ATL beats CLE

If the Hawks win, the Cavs are eliminated. In the rare possibility that the Heat, Knicks, Nets, and Celtics all lose, Either the 76ers or the Hawks have a chance to take the wildcard, although they would need to overcome an imense amount of PD from every team in contention. This accounts for the first 16 outcomes.

Tier I: Win and In

Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA N/A
CHA @ NYK N/A
TOR @ BKN N/A
CHI @ BOS N/A

This is the only scenario in which the Cavs win and don’t need to edge a team over point differential. Extremely unlikely, but we can dream.

Tier II: Win and Win Good

​

Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA N/A MIL @ MIA N/A
CHA @ NYK N/A CHA @ NYK N/A
TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN 2
CHI @ BOS -6 CHI @ BOS -6

Cavs have a nice 6 point cushion over Boston, but may need to outperform Brooklyn. Still these are not very likely outcomes.

Tier III: The Knicks

​

Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA N/A MIL @ MIA N/A MIL @ MIA N/A
CHA @ NYK +12 CHA @ NYK +12 CHA @ NYK +12
TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN +2
CHI @ BOS N/A CHI @ BOS -6 CHI @ BOS -6
Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA +5 MIL @ MIA +5 MIL @ MIA +5
CHA @ NYK +12 CHA @ NYK +12 CHA @ NYK +12
TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN +2
CHI @ BOS N/A CHI @ BOS -6 CHI @ BOS -6

If the Knicks win, the Cavs have to at least beat their point differential, and there’s no way around it. They are the team most likely to keep the Cavs out of the wildcard spot. If they win by a big margin they are likely out, and if the Hornets keep it close you still need to contend with all the other teams in the hunt. Even though this is an uphill battle, it’s still fairly straightforward and not completely out of reach for Cavs if they play really well, But after this is where…

Tier IV: Things get wierd

​

Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA N/A
CHA @ NYK N/A
TOR @ BKN Group C Winner
CHI @ BOS N/A
*Orlando Magic +16

A Brooklyn win combined with a Celtics loss gives the Nets the group C win, regardless of PD. This means that the Cavs will have to overcome Orlando’s +22 Point differential. Having already played their games, the Cavs don’t need to worry about outperferforming them if this happens, they just need to win by 16 by scoring 101 (this is due to the aforementioned total points scored tiebraker,) or win by 17+ otherwise.

Tier V: Suffering

​

Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA N/A MIL @ MIA +5
CHA @ NYK +12 CHA @ NYK +12
TOR @ BKN Group C Winner TOR @ BKN Group C Winner
CHI @ BOS N/A CHI @ BOS N/A
*Orlando Magic +16 *Orlando Magic +16

By this point it would take an absolute thrashing of Atlanta to get to the wildcard spot. Needing to outpoint Miami, Orlando, and New York almost certainly eliminates the Cavs from contention. It couldn’t be much worse.

Tier VI: The End of All Hope

​

Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA Group B Winner MIL @ MIA Group B Winner MIL @ MIA Group B Winner
CHA @ NYK N/A CHA @ NYK N/A CHA @ NYK N/A
TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN N/A TOR @ BKN +2
CHI @ BOS N/A CHI @ BOS -6 CHI @ BOS -6
*Milwaukee +33 *Milwaukee +33 *Milwaukee +33

You might have made it this far along and thought, “Wow I sure hope the Knicks lose, that would be a big break for the Cavs!” Unfortunately this could potentially make Milwaukee the wildcard team in group B if they lose to Miami. Even though they would be losing some PD by losing the game, a 33 point gap would be extremely difficult to overcome for the Cavs. In this scenario you’d need to see Milwaukee get beaten by 20+ to even have a chance.

Tier VII: Hell

​

Game PD needed to overcome
MIL @ MIA Group B Winner
CHA @ NYK N/A
TOR @ BKN Group C Winner
CHI @ BOS N/A
*Milwaukee +33
*Orlando +16

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

​

Alright that does it. All of these games play at the same time so much of this analysis is just for fun. I hope next year there will be a bigger emphasis on point differential during the initial group play games, because the way this is set up it pays off to blow out teams, and keep any loss you do have close. IMO JB really fumbled the end of the Detroit game by giving up some points at the end. No matter, I’ll be watching. Go Cavs