Summary:
1.Bad teams winning is good.
2.If two teams have the same record, the team with a lower strength of schedule (SOS) gets the earlier pick. So, teams on Bears or Panthers schedule losing is good.
Current draft order and SOS, via Tankathon
TEAMS WITH BYE WEEKS: Bears (4-8), Bills (6-6), Giants (4-8), Raiders (5-7), Ravens (9-3), Vikings (6-6)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seahawks (6-5) at Cowboys (8-3)
Preferred result = Seahawks win. This game seems pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But, the Seahawks winning would increase the Cards SOS, helping our pick/Panthers pick win a potential tiebreaker with the Cardinals first rounder in the event that one of us/Panthers end with the same record as the Cards.
SUNDAY EARLY SLOT
Chargers (4-7) at Patriots (2-9)
Preferred result = Patriots win. Pats are currently the 1.03. Them winning would would increase the Panthers chance of being the 1.01 and put the Patriots only a game behind the Bears.
Lions (8-3) at Saints (5-6)
Preferred result = Saints. This game is a bit of a double edged sword. There are a lot of 4-win teams, so our SOS being as low as possible helps with tie breakers.
Falcons (5-6) at Jets (4-7)
Preferred result = Jets win. A Falcons loss lowers the Panthers SOS.
Cardinals (2-10) at Steelers (7-4)
Preferred result = Cardinals win. Cards are at the 1.02 now, so a win would be another step towards securing the 1.01. Also puts them just a game behind the Bears in draft order.
Colts (6-5) at Titans (4-7)
Preferred result = Titans win. Bears and Tits are both sitting at 4 wins, so a Titans win would move them later than the Bears in draft order.
Dolphins (8-3) at Commanders (4-8)
Preferred result = Commanders win. Same reason as above, Commies are at 4 wins so a W would help move them later than the Bears.
Broncos (6-5) at Houston (6-5)
Preferred result = Broncos win. Another game that seems pretty irrelevant since both teams are in playoff contention. The Texans played the Panthers earlier this year, so powering the Panthers’ SOS would be a bit helpful.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SLOT
Panthers (1-10) at Buccaneers (4-7)
Preferred result = Bucs win. Another step towards us securing the 1.01.
49ers (8-3) at Eagles (10-1)
Preferred result = 49ers win. Another game between playoff teams, so nothing huge at stake here. A 49ers win increases the Cards SOS, helping with any potential tiebreakers.
Browns (7-4) at Rams (5-6)
Preferred result = Rams win. Same reason as above, increasing Cards SOS seems like the best outcome here.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chiefs (8-3) at GB (5-6)
Preferred result = Chiefs win. Helps lower our SOS.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bengals (5-6) at Jaguars (8-3)
Preferred result = Jags win. I couldn’t find any reason that one team winning would help/hurt us, but I like the Jags so I’m rooting for them.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/chicago-bears-nfl-playoff-picture.html
This is fun to mess around with. It has us at a 2% chance to make the playoffs as of right now, 70% if we win out. The rest of our schedule is not too bad.
Packers, Saints, Rams, Vikings, and Seahawks are at 5 or 6 wins and are the main teams fighting for the 6 and 7 seed, the Cowboys are close to locking down the 5 seed