I know I said I would be done after 3 losses, but figured I might as well finish off the season at this point. Plus a couple of people were asking for it.
Actual Record: 9 - 3
Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5
Running a little worse than EV, but still pretty close.
I don’t care about the stupid math stuff nerd. What’s the pick!?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There are three heavy favorites to go with this week, two of which we’ve used.
- MIA (-9.5)
- DAL (-9)
- JAX (-8.5)
TB and PIT are next up at -5.5. I wouldn’t fault people for going with JAX, but mathematically the slightly better option is to use TB now and save JAX for week 17. PIT should be held for next week when they get an awful NE team.
| Week | Pick 1 | P(Win) | Pick 2 | P(Win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | TB | 70% | JAX | 78% |
| 17 | JAX | 87% | LAR | 76% |
| P(Win both) | 60.9% | 59.3% |
Top 4 overall options:
| Rank | Team | P(Win Week) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 70% | 27.72% | 13.87 |
| 2 | JAX | 78% | 26.94% | 13.84 |
| 3 | PIT | 70% | 25.88% | 13.82 |
| 4 | HOU | 62% | 24.55% | 13.79 |
Full Season Outlook
The beauty of this model is that it looks at the entire season as a whole. Based on past picks, this is what the rest of the season would look like based on what we know right now.
| Week | Team | Opp | P(Win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | HOU | 100% |
| 2 | BUF | LV | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | ARI | 0% |
| 4 | SF | ARI | 100% |
| 5 | WAS | CHI | 0% |
| 6 | MIA | CAR | 100% |
| 7 | KC | LAC | 100% |
| 8 | LAC | CHI | 100% |
| 9 | CLE | ARI | 100% |
| 10 | SEA | WAS | 100% |
| 11 | DET | CHI | 100% |
| 12 | NE | NYG | 0% |
| 13 | TB | CAR | 70% |
| 14 | PIT | NE | 79% |
| 15 | NO | NYG | 86% |
| 16 | PHI | NYG | 94% |
| 17 | JAX | CAR | 87% |
| 18 | GB | CHI | 71% |
No changes this week. This is for sure a giant hurdle to get over this week. If you have the opportunity to skip a week, now is the time to use it.
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 27.72%. That’s about 1 in 3.5.
E(Wins) = 13.87
On pace to finish the season with 4 losses. We should expect to see one more.
Methodology
In the past I had pulled probability data from 538 but apparently they got out of the business. I now pull in future probability data from NumberFire and SurvivorGrid, then average the two.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it’s optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (100+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you’re in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
I make no personal evaluations of any teams or matchups. I trust the odds makers in Vegas and the people betting on those games to know more than I do. So if you’re thinking, “Do you really trust player X?” or “Are you really picking team Y on the road?” The simple answer is that, other people with much more insight and knowledge than I could ever have have determined that Team A is that much better than Team B despite any special pleading from me or you. My picks are coming from a purely mathematical perspective using the odds that others have provided elsewhere. If you think a team isn’t as good as their line suggests, then take it up with Vegas.
Download
Every year I got a lot of “well what if I have to pick multiple teams in week X?” or “What if my league, you have to pick only losers?” or “What about team A, B, or C this week?”
I tried to make the file as all encompassing as possible, so if your survivor league has some weird quark or wrinkle in it download the file and give it a shot. If the file still doesn’t answer your question, let me know and I might add the feature in.
You can download the file here from Mediafire. – This link will likely only be good for week 1 this year while the probabilities don’t come from 538.
Disclaimer
Yes I went undefeated three years ago. No, do not expect those results this season. 2020 had the highest percentage of people go undefeated in at least the last decade, so it was an easier year with fewer upsets. In 2019 I lost 3 games by week 12 and last year had 3 losses by week 10. This isn’t a “guaranteed to win” system, just one that gives you the mathematically best chance of going undefeated. Variance is a thing, and we’ve all seen teams lose as double digit favorites.
The probability of going undefeated entering a season is about 0.5% or 1 in 200. This is typical to start the season. Don’t come harping at me if/when I pick a losing team.
Good luck to everyone this season!
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