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  • e1_duderB
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    11 months ago

    Worth considering the “diminished” role of the attacking midfielders so far this season. Comparisons to last year aren’t absolute, but they can be helpful in trying to understand changes in the team. While imperfect, I took a look at the performance of Xhaka and Odegaard last season to the current “attacking midfielder group” of Ode, Havertz, ESR, and Vieira.

    As a team, Arsenal has averaged 717.4 touches per 90 so far this season. This is an increase over last season’s average of 681. Despite this, our attacking midfielders are averaging less touches - 45.6 v. 58.7. Saka and Martinelli stand out as attacking players to touch the ball more than last season’s average. Creative production, measured as key passes, passes into the final third, xA and XAG from the attacking midfielders has dropped when compared to last season’s averages. Odegaard in particular stands out, he average 2.2 KP/90 last year, but now averages 1.3, a drop of about ~41%. Our current “average” attacking midfielder makes 1.19 KP/90 compared to last years 1.81.

    What’s interesting is that “Shot Creating Actions” have not seen a similar drop. Odegaard’s SCA/90 last year was 4.69, this year it is 4.29. That is only a 9% decrease and it doesn’t quite match his drop in XAG, KP, or other attacking metrics. Looking at the “average attacking midfielder” the drop in SCA/90 is barely perceptible, 3.98 this year v. 4.0 last year (this comparison is juiced by Vieira and ESR’s inflated /90 numbers though, Havertz firmly trails behind Xhaka’s production here). Odegaard’s GCA/90 is another example of this trend. Odegaard has one assist in the league this year, a serious drop in his /90 performance from last year on the order of 60%, but his GCA/90 has only dropped by 10% - .44 v .49.

    SCA & GCA measures the two offensive actions before a shot/goal. This would suggest that our AMs are doing more to facilitate play rather than being the direct instigator of goals and shots. The eye test matches this - I’ve noticed Odegaard being more involved in wide rotations as a facilitator more often in recent games.

    Alternatively, this could all just be explained by Odegaard dropping some form and the other AMs being collectively unable to match Xhaka’s direct contributions last year. However, the divisiveness around these positions, the stats, and what we are seeing would suggest there is a strategic/tactical change. We are less direct than we were last year, are forced wide, and play against lower lines. In this set up, the attacking midfielder - regardless of who it is - gets less opportunity to be a direct influence on things.