Original article from drinkfive.com

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you enjoyed Thanksgiving with family and/or friends and enjoyed the stress-free process of setting lineups last week with no players on byes, because that changes this week. Week 13 has an unsightly SIX teams sitting out, including some offenses with weekly stud performers. Setting lineups this week is going to be much more challenging, and many of you may be in must-win situations as we make the push for the playoffs in these last 2 weeks of the fantasy regular season.

 

If you read this whole column, you’re going to get tired of hearing me say there are 6 teams on byes this week, but it’s relevant when considering which rookies are worth playing. With so many teams sitting, that rookie receiver who puts up 8 PPR points per week is suddenly going to look a lot more appealing if you’re desperately searching for replacement options to fill out the lineup. By now we’ve started to get a clearer picture of which rookies you can trust, and which ones you can’t, but there’s still plenty to sort out as you make those crucial start/sit decisions this week.

 

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

Let’s dive into week 13…

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

 

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): The Broncos defense has been much better in recent weeks than their overall numbers would suggest. They’ve held 4 of their last 7 opponents below 200 passing yards, and only Patrick Mahomes threw for 250+ against them in that span, but let’s be serious, you’re not sitting Stroud. CJ has set the NFL rookie record for passing yards in a 4-game stretch in his four November starts (1,466 yards), topping 300 passing yards in each game and piling up 12 total TDs in the process. He’s probably more of a contrarian play in DFS lineups this week rather than a chalk option given the matchup, but he’s a top-5 QB option in season-long lineups, especially with Lamar and Josh Allen on byes.

 

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Robinson posted his best game of the season in week 12 in a less than ideal matchup, and this week he faces a Jets’ defense that allows the 6th-most RB points per game. If we throw out the headache game in Tampa, Bijan has now put up at least 6.7 PPR points or more from just receiving production in every single full game he’s played with Desmond Ridder at QB, and the Jets rank just 22nd in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. Bijan’s also averaged 12 rushing attempts per game in those contests. He should see plenty of work in a game that should have a neutral or positive game script all day. He’s a top-12 back this week.

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): Gibbs posted his worst fantasy performance since September on Thanksgiving against Green Bay, and he was still good enough to finish as the RB25 for the week. The usage numbers were also very positive – Gibbs played nearly 70% of the offensive snaps, was in a route on 82% of the team passing dropbacks and handled 15 touches. That workload should be similar this week, and even if Gibbs is as inefficient this week as he was on Turkey Day, that workload should be enough to push him up to an RB2 finish just by virtue of there being 6 byes this week. I expect he’ll be better this week, even against a New Orleans team that allows the 11th-fewest RB points per game. I’m not sure I’d count on a ceiling game here, but I’d treat Jahmyr as a low-end RB1 for this weekend.

 

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Dell has continued to shine during CJ Stroud’s hot streak over the last month. He’s put up at least 50 yards and a TD in each of the last 4 games. He’s logged finishes as the WR1, WR11, WR3, and WR20 in that span. Denver’s defense has been better in recent weeks. They haven’t allowed a wide receiver touchdown since week 7, but you can’t sit Dell right now. Like his QB, he’s a better option this week in season-long leagues rather than DFS lineups, but with 6 teams on a bye, Dell has to be treated as a top-12 option for week 13.

 

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): LaPorta finally got himself back on track and posted a TE3 finish on Thanksgiving against the Packers. I mentioned in this column last week that the chunk plays had gone away for LaPorta. He’d gone 5 straight games without a single catch of 20+ yards and had averaged 10 or fewer yards per catch in each of them. His first target against Green Bay went for a 31-yard gain. Two plays later, he scored a touchdown. This week’s matchup is a solid one. The Saints allow the 9th-most TE points per game, and in their last 8 games, they’ve allowed 6 TDs and 6 catches of 20+ yards to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is comfortably a top-10 option this week with so many teams on byes.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

 

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 13: @Was): We’re looking at another week of keeping a close eye on the injury report for Achane. He sat last week after aggravating the knee injury that put him on IR earlier this season, and he’s questionable for this Sunday. Mike McDaniel said Achane was held out on Black Friday due to an abundance of caution, and that he should be fine, but pay close attention to reports leading up to the weekend. If Achane is able to play, he gets a good matchup against a bad Washington defense. The Commanders have allowed the 12th-most RB points per game, and they’ve given up some big plays in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 10+ yards on 13.4% of the rushing attempts against them in their last 4 games, and 4 rushes went for more than 25 yards in that span. We know Achane’s volume isn’t going to be huge if he plays with Raheem Mostert around, so he’s going to need big plays to return value in your lineup, and those big plays can be had against Washington. Achane is a volatile option this week if he’s active. We’ve seen the ceiling in his breakout games earlier in the year, but if he winds up with a normal 4 or 5 yards per carry kind of performance here, there’s a good chance he finishes outside the top-24 backs this week. He’s a boom-or-bust RB2 option.

 

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Kenneth Walker III has been officially designated as ‘doubtful’ for Thursday night’s tilt with the Cowboys, so Charbonnet should again handle the bulk of the workload. Charbs handled 18 out of 21 Seattle backfield touches last weekend. The results could’ve been better. He finished as the RB32 with just 58 scrimmage yards on those 18 touches in a tough matchup with the 49ers, and he draws another tough task this week with the Cowboys. Dallas allows the 5th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 9th in run defense DVOA. Still, it’s hard to be much less efficient than Charbonnet was last week. I’d view that output as his floor for this week if KW3 doesn’t miraculously play. With 6 teams taking the week off, that kind of outing would get him close to the RB2 ranks, and there’s always upside for more when you get a bellcow workload. I’d treat Charbonnet as a back end RB2 option this week.

 

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): With 6 teams on byes this week, you probably are going to have to start Puka. The output has not been ideal in recent weeks as Puka has been held to fewer than 8 PPR points in 3 of his last 4 games. He has the built-in excuse that one of those games was started by Brett Rypien, but there have been some down games with Stafford under center too, and this week’s matchup is brutal on paper. The Browns allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. There are still reasons to be optimistic about Nacua this week. He’s still earned at least 7 targets in every game this season, and the Browns’ coverage scheme might be favorable to him. No team plays more man-to-man coverage than the Browns, and Puka has tallied double the fantasy points per route run and nearly triple the yards per route run that Cooper Kupp has when facing man-to-man coverage. He’s the Rams’ receiver you want to target this week. I’d still be comfortable plugging Puka into fantasy lineups despite the tough matchup in this one.

 

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Downs came out of the Colts’ bye and was back to his usual role in the offense, playing the bulk of the slot snaps and being peppered with short targets by Gardner Minshew. The final stat line wasn’t overwhelming (5 catches for 43 yards), but Downs was targeted a whopping 13 times in the game. Downs now averages 9.6 targets per game in the 5 full healthy games he’s played with Minshew as QB. He could be primed for a spike performance this week in a great matchup too. The Titans allow the 8th-most WR points per game, and they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA on short throws. Downs also logged his second-best yardage game of the season in Indy’s first meeting with the Titans back in October. Downs should be treated as a PPR WR2 this week, and a high-end WR3 in half-PPR. This could be one of his better games of the season.

 

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 13: @GB): The Chiefs finally used Rice as their featured receiver last Sunday against the Raiders, and the results were eye-opening. Rice set new season highs in route participation rate (68%) and targets (10), and he turned that into a dazzling 8-107-1 line and WR4 finish for the week. Will he continue to be targeted at that rate this week? We can certainly hope so, but what’s really important is that we’ve now seen a ceiling from Rice that he just hadn’t shown prior to last weekend. The floor should still be intact and solid enough to make Rice a WR3 this week against a Green Bay defense that ranks 17th in pass defense DVOA, but that newly discovered ceiling means you can play him over some lackluster WR2/3 options like DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, or Chris Godwin and not feel like it’s a desperation play.

 

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): While it sounds like a longshot that Douglas gets cleared from the concussion protocol in time for this game, this would be a prime spot for a strong outing if Douglas were able to play. The Chargers have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and have been bleeding big plays in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 11 plays of 25+ yards in the last 3 games, and Douglas is the likeliest candidate to make a splash play for the Patriots. The rookie has been targeted at least 7 times in each of his last 4 games, and that kind of volume against the Chargers should result in a WR3 day or better. Keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week to see if Douglas is progressing. There’s upside here if he can get cleared.

 

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Reed has finished as a PPR WR2 or better in 3 straight games and has finished lower than the WR31 just once in his last 6 contests. He doesn’t always have a route participation rate around 80% like he has the last couple weeks, but Green Bay has consistently found ways to get the ball into his hands and Reed continues to produce. Kansas City is a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but passing volume shouldn’t be a problem with Green Bay a 6.5-point underdog. Reed has averaged 8 opportunities per game (targets + carries) in the last 3 weeks, and that kind of workload this week, with many teams sitting on byes, should be enough to make him at least a WR3 option despite the matchup.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

 

QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Levis has shown us over the past month that his 4-TD debut was just a tease. He’s totaled zero touchdowns in 3 of the 4 games played since, and only hit 200+ passing yards once in those 4 games. He could get an extra weapon into the lineup this week with Treylon Burks back at practice, but I’m not sure that really moves the needle. The Colts rank 10th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards to the starting QB in 5 of their last 6 games. They have allowed multiple TDs in 3 of those contests, but nothing we’ve seen from Levis over the last month should give you confidence that he’ll make it 4 of 7. I’d prefer Levis over some of the bottom of the barrel QB options this week if I were looking for a QB2, but I wouldn’t want to start Levis in a 1-QB league this week.

 

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): For the 2nd week in a row, the Titans will face a defense that is easier to run against than throw against, and you saw how that worked out for Tyjae last week. Spears played his lowest snap share since week 2 and had his worst fantasy game of the season as Derrick Henry dominated the backfield work in a 7-point win. I don’t think it’ll be quite that bad for Spears this week – there’s a better chance that the Titans are in a negative game script and forced to throw than there was last week against the Panthers. Even if that is the case, Spears’ receiving output hasn’t been nearly as effective since the team switched to Will Levis at QB. In 5 games with Levis at the helm, Spears has recorded 12 or fewer receiving yards in 4 of them despite averaging 4 targets per game. There’s still upside here. I expect Spears to be closer to his normal 8-10 touch range this week rather than the 3 he saw last week, and the Colts are a good matchup (allow the 7th-most RB points per game), so you could plug in Tyjae as a PPR RB3 or RB4 if you were desperate. That lackluster receiving efficiency with Levis makes me lean against that though.

 

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): Mingo topped 60 receiving yards for just the 2nd time all season last weekend as the Titans did everything they could to take away Adam Thielen. Thielen finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 targets. I wouldn’t expect Thielen to be shut down like that again this week, so I wouldn’t view last week as the start of a breakout for Mingo. The Panthers have fired Frank Reich and turned play-calling duties over to OC Thomas Brown, but it should be more of the same for this offense. Brown called the games against Houston, Indy and Chicago earlier this year, and the results weren’t much different than the rest of the season. Mingo averaged 5.3 targets per game and 29 yards per game in that stretch. This week’s matchup with the Bucs is a good one for receivers. Tampa has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and has coughed up 311 passing yards per game since their week 5 bye. They’ve also been getting hurt down the field, giving up 29 completions of 20+ yards in their last 7 games. Unfortunately, Bryce Young is not the QB to take advantage of that matchup. Mingo would have serious upside in this matchup if he had a QB who could hit him deep, but I’m going to go ahead and bet against Bryce Young being able to do that this week. Mingo is a volatile WR4 option.

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 13: @Dal.): JSN on Thanksgiving earned his lowest target total since all the way back in week 3, but he still found his way to 40 receiving yards for 6th time in the last 7 games. He has continued to be a stable floor PPR WR4 over the past couple months, but he faces a tough matchup this week in Dallas, one where it wouldn’t surprise me if his playing time ticks down a bit. Geno Smith has struggled to throw the ball out of 11 personnel (3-wide sets). Per NFL writer Doug Farrar, Geno has a passer rating of 78.8 when in 11 personnel, 12th lowest in the league, and no defense allows a lower passer rating to opponents in 11 personnel than the Cowboys (72.6). The Seahawks could use more 2-tight end sets to try to offset that disadvantage, and it won’t be DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett going to the bench in those situations. Smith-Njigba should still have his familiar 40-yard floor, but I don’t see much of a path to ceiling in this one unless he finds the end zone.

 

WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Wicks has cleared the concussion protocol and should return to action this week as the Packers’ WR4 in their 4-man rotation at the position. He’s more likely to hamper the upside of his teammates this week than he is to make a fantasy impact of his own. Wicks has seen more than 4 targets in a game just twice this year, so he typically needs a deep ball to make himself useful in fantasy lineups, and the Chiefs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They allowed just 4 completions of more than 20 yards in 3 November games. Wicks has carved out a substantial role for himself in this offense, but this feels like a week where he’s best left on the bench.

 

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Wilson has missed the last 2 games with a shoulder injury and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Even if he gets in a limited practice session Friday and can play, I wouldn’t expect a big game in his first action in 3 weeks. I think it’s likelier that the Cards hold him out with their bye next week. Pittsburgh does allow the 10th-most WR points per game, but they play man coverage at the 7th-highest rate, and almost all of Wilson’s damage this season has come against zone. This wouldn’t be a great spot for a fully healthy Wilson, let alone a banged-up Wilson.

 

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 13: @NE): Johnston’s rookie season so far has been a long, strange, disappointing trip, and it took another strange turn last weekend. Johnston suffered a rib injury in the 3rd quarter against the Ravens on Sunday night, and he was cleared to return to the game but was held out by head coach Brandon Staley. That’s not all that uncommon - the strange part was the way Staley bristled and condescended to the media member who asked him about the decision in his postgame presser. It was an odd exchange that probably had more to do with the pressure Staley is feeling from the hot seat he’s sitting on than with anything to do with QJ, but it sort of feels like Staley was looking for a reason to sit him. Alex Erickson was already taking a sizable chunk of the WR3 role before Johnston suffered the injury, and that probably continues this week. Johnston had 3 weeks as a full-time receiver in this offense, and he averaged less than 7 PPR points per game in that span. QJ is practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, but you can’t start him now that he seems to be back to a part-time role.

 

TE Tucker Kraft, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Kraft wasn’t targeted a ton in his first opportunity to start last Thursday, but he did log an 88% route participation rate and found the end zone on his way to a TE9 finish on Turkey Day. The matchup gets tougher this week. The Chiefs allow the 4th-fewest TE points per game, and only Gerald Everett has reached double-digit fantasy points against them this season. They haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 30 yards against them in their last 6 games. Some of that is because they just haven’t faced any good tight ends in that span, but Kraft isn’t a guy who necessarily changes that. Kraft should have a full-time role, and there are 6 teams on byes this week, so he’s at least in consideration if you’re looking for a streaming tight end, but he’s likely scoring less than 6 points unless he gets into the end zone.

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

 

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): I’ve tried to pick the spots where Bryce Young has a bit more upside this year but have mostly failed because there just aren’t a lot of weeks where Bryce has more upside. Young has made 10 starts this season, and he’s reached 12+ fantasy points in only half of them, and 15+ points just once. The Panthers made a major change this week, sacking head coach Frank Reich and replacing him in the interim with special teams coordinator Chris Tabor. It’s a big change for the organization, but likely won’t change much for Bryce. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will step into the play-calling duties, a role he’s already held for 3 games this season. In those 3 games, Bryce Young averaged 199 passing yards per game and totaled 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Don’t count on drastic improvements due to the coaching change. The matchup this week is good. Tampa Bay has allowed 250+ passing yards to 8 of the 11 QBs they’ve faced, and multiple total TDs to 7 of them. That doesn’t mean you can’t count on Bryce to increase those numbers. Even with so many teams on byes this week, Bryce should be viewed as just a low-end QB2 option.

 

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAR): Thompson-Robinson left last weekend’s game with a concussion, and it remains to be seen if he’ll get cleared in time to return this week. Even if he does, there’s not a good reason to insert him into lineups unless you’re desperate in a superflex league. DTR has tallied just 1 total touchdown in nearly 3 games of action. He was on his way to his best game of the season before getting hurt last week, but I wouldn’t count on him to repeat that, especially if Amari Cooper isn’t able to suit up. The Rams aren’t a difficult matchup for QBs, allowing the 13th-most points per game to the position. They’ve especially struggled to contain rushing QBs, allowing Anthony Richardson (56 yards and a TD), Jalen Hurts (72 and a TD), and Joshua Dobbs (47 yards) to all have strong running days against them. DTR does have that element to his game, but he may be hesitant to take off and run after suffering the concussion last week. He’s a fringe QB2 even with so many teams on byes.

 

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Travis Etienne suffered a rib injury in last week’s contest, so you may be tempted to think Bigsby could see an expanded role this week. I wouldn’t get too excited. Etienne was able to play through the injury on Sunday, he’s practicing in a limited capacity as of Thursday, and when he did cede more work to the backup last week, it wasn’t to Tank Bigsby. D’Ernest Johnson has quietly usurped Bigsby for the RB2 role in this offense over the last 3 weeks, and it was Johnson who handled the bulk of the opportunities that Etienne didn’t. Johnson finished the game with 61 yards on 9 touches while Bigsby tallied just 1 rush for 6 yards. I’d guess that Etienne will be able to suit up this week, but if the rib injury does sideline him, I expect Bigsby to handle just a smattering of touches behind D’Ernest. The Bengals are one of the worst run defenses in the league – they rank 29th in run defense DVOA – but Bigsby will be nothing more than a DFS dart throw if Etienne sits.

 

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): McLaughlin was down to just 2 snaps played in week 12. He’s the clear RB3 right now behind Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. There’s not a good reason to roster him in most redraft leagues right now, and you can’t start him this week in Houston.

 

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Demercado returned from his toe injury last weekend but played just 22% of the offensive snaps behind James Conner. He finished with just 3 touches for 15 yards. That kind of workload isn’t going to get you very far even against a middling Steelers’ run defense.

 

RB Chase Brown, CIN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): The Bengals have said they want to get Chase Brown more involved in the offense going forward after he logged zero touches in his return from IR last weekend, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Bengals are still trying to win games to keep their dying playoff hopes alive, and Brown doesn’t have enough experience yet to be a clear upgrade over either Joe Mixon or Treyveon Henderson in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown gets a few touches this week, but he’ll still function as the RB3 against a defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA.

 

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): Palmer has been on the field plenty as the WR3 in this offense, but the production just hasn’t been there. Trey has been held below 25 receiving yards in all but two games this season, and last weekend he was under a 70% route participation rate for the first time since week 6 as fellow rookies Rakim Jarrett and Payne Durham chipped away at his playing time. This week’s matchup also isn’t a good one for an ancillary receiver. Only the Browns have faced less passing volume than the 1-10 Panthers. Carolina has allowed the 5th-fewest points per game to opposing WRs and ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.

 

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Mims has now earned 3 targets in back-to-back games after earning that many in a game only once prior to week 11, but his playing time headed in the wrong direction and the production still isn’t there. Mims lost snaps in week 12 to Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and now the team has designated Brandon Johnson to return from IR as well, but his biggest problem here is just the overall team passing volume. Russell Wilson has averaged just 26 passing attempts and 165 passing yards per game over the last 6 contests. That’s just not enough for an ancillary target like Mims to make an impact. Mims hasn’t reached 40 yards in a game since week 4, and last week’s 35 yards were the first time he’s even reached 15 in a game since then.

 

WRs Xavier Gipson & Jason Brownlee, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Atl.): The Jets’ first week with Tim Boyle at QB wasn’t a whole lot different than what we’ve seen with Zach Wilson under center. Boyle threw for just 179 yards and the offense tallied just 6 points (the only team TD was a pick-6). Boyle also leaned heavily on Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Tyler Conklin in the passing game. Gipson and Brownlee were full-time players last week with Allen Lazard an unexpected healthy scratch – Brownlee was in a route on every single passing dropback and Gipson was in a route on 79% of them – but the duo combined for just 4 targets in a game where Boyle threw the ball 38 times. Atlanta ranks a miserable 29th in pass defense DVOA, but I’m just not confident the Jets’ passing game gets going enough to make either of these receivers a worthwhile fantasy option, even in this good matchup.

 

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Iosivas logged his highest route participation rate of the season in week 12 (34%), but it amounted to just 1 catch for 16 yards on 2 targets. The increased playing time is a good sign, but it doesn’t mean much with Jake Browning at QB, and at some point, Tee Higgins will return to the lineup. There’s not much reason to consider Iosivas this week.

 

WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Bobo logged his lowest route participation rate of the season last week (14%). There’s no need to consider a guy who’s run 10 or fewer routes in 4 of his last 5 games, especially in a tough matchup. Dallas allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): With the return of DeVante Parker to the lineup last week, Boutte was at just a 14% route participation rate, and he tallied just 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 targets against the Giants. Demario Douglas could miss this game after suffering a concussion last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a spike in production for Boutte if that happens. He’s totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on the season on 65 routes run, and he’d be sharing the WR3 role with Tyquan Thornton and possibly Jalen Reagor even if Douglas sits.

 

Rookies on week 13 byes: QB Aidan O’Connell, LV, QB Tommy DeVito, NYG, RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL, RB Roschon Johnson, CHI, RB Eric Gray, NYG, WR Zay Flowers, BAL, WR Jordan Addison, MIN, WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG, WR Tre Tucker, LV, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, TE Michael Mayer, LV

 

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Kendre Miller, NO, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Kenny McIntosh, SEA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB, TE Brenton Strange, JAX, TE Josh Whyle, TEN

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 13: Bye): I mention Hall for those of you in deep superflex leagues where any starting QB is worth a pile of gold. I don’t know how likely it is that the Vikings make a QB change over their bye week, but head coach Kevin O’Connell said they were going to be ‘evaluating the position’ after Joshua Dobbs threw 4 interceptions on Monday Night Football against a bad Bears’ defense. Normally when a coach says that, a change is likely. You could potentially get ahead of your league mates on Hall by picking him up this week instead of waiting until the change is official. There’s always a chance the Vikings will go with Nick Mullens instead of Hall if a change does happen, but we’ve seen enough of Mullens to know he isn’t very good. Hall has completed 8-of-10 passes for 101 yards in his limited action this year and would likely have Justin Jefferson back in the lineup.

 

WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAR): Tillman has been playing increased snaps since the trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones to Detroit, logging route participation rates above 85% in each of the last 3 games, and that increased playing time finally turned into some production last weekend. Prior to last week, Tillman had totaled 3 catches for 10 yards on the season. He put up 4 catches for 55 yards on Sunday, flirting with a WR3 finish in fantasy. This week he may see veteran Joe Flacco step in at QB, which likely means better passing numbers for the team (Flacco’s career-worst passer rating is 23 points higher than DTR’s this season), and there’s a chance Amari Cooper misses this game with a rib injury. Flacco does have a rapport with Elijah Moore already as the two played together in New York, so I probably wouldn’t start Tillman unless Amari is out, but there’s some sneaky WR3 upside here if Cooper sits. The Rams are just a middling pass defense at 14th in pass defense DVOA.

 

WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Perry has now played 2 games with extended snaps, and he’s mostly been running empty routes. He’s been targeted just 6 times on 74 routes run. He flashed in week 10 with a touchdown and another long reception, but last Sunday he was limited to just 1 catch for 7 yards. The Saints were already down Michael Thomas (on IR with a knee issue), but they’re expecting to also be without Rashid Shaheed this week and don’t know if Chris Olave will get cleared from the concussion protocol in time for the game. That means Perry could be arguably the WR1 this week against a Detroit defense that allows the 6th-most WR points per game. If the top-3 receivers are all out, I’d expect the Saints’ passing game to run through Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, and Taysom Hill, but Perry would likely fall into 5-6 targets by default in that scenario. I’m not saying he’d be a plug-and-play WR3 in that situation, but he’d be worth consideration if you were looking for a fill-in option in deeper leagues.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.