Notes:

  • All of this is based on the New York Times Upshot Playoff Simulator and the ESPN Playoff Machine.
  • HT to u/SportsRadioAnnouncer who did a much more thorough version of this a couple of seasons ago.

Current situation:

  • Colts are 6-5 and currently the 7-seed as they hold the tie-breaker vs. the Texans (H2H) and Broncos (Division Win %)
  • Jaguars are leading the division at 8-3 and also hold the tiebreaker over the Colts.
  • The Upshot Simulator currently gives us a 48% of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the division.
  • Schedule: @ Titans, at Bengals, vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

Week 13: Colts @ Titans:

  • Without taking other games into account, the playoff probability changes as follows:
    • W: 61%
    • L: 32%
  • Playoff leverage (W% - L% = 61%-32%=29%) is…
    • same as at Bengals
    • lower than vs. Steelers (37%) and vs. Texans (40%)
    • higher than at Falcons (19%) and vs. Raiders (28%)

Week 13: Other games (ranked by importance):

  • Cardinals win @ Steelers (+4% playoff probability for us)
  • Texans win vs. Broncos (+3%)
  • Rams win vs. Browns (+3%)
  • Jaguars win vs. Bengals (+1%)
  • Patriots win vs. Chargers (+1%)

Note: Theses changes are before I put in the result of our game vs. Titans. If we win, they do not change noticeably. If we lose, Cardinals W becomes even more important (+5%) while the rest stays similar.

Best Case/Worst Case:

  • In a best case scenario in W13, our playoff chances rise to 66% and we would sit 7-5 as the 7-seed while PIT and CLE are the 5 and 6 seed also with a record of 7-5 but holding the tie-breakers vs. us.
  • In a worst case scenario in W13, our playoff chances drop to 25% and we are 6-6 tied with Buffalo, Houston and Cincinnati in the 8-11 seeds.

Rest of Season Outlook:

  • Going 11-6 puts us safely in, Going 8-9 or worse leaves us virtually no chance at making the playoffs
  • At 10-7, we are between 97% (L to TEN and ATL) and 56% (L to PIT and HOU) to make the playoffs
  • At 9-8, we are between 50% (Ws CIN,PIT,HOU) vs. and 4% (Ls to CIN,PIT,HOU)